By Arthur Shaw

The presidential election in Venezuela will take place Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. The election pits President Hugo Chavez for re-election against the reactionary Henrique Capriles as the challenger.

Almost all of the polls show that Chavez will win by at least a double-digit margin. Chavez has maintain a double digit lead in polls conducted by 15 established polling firms — some liberal firms and others reactionary firms — for at least six months. Some of the 15 firms have been in business for over 30 years.

Capriles has three polling firms producing good numbers for him. Only one of the three firms is considered established and reputable. The other two firms appeared from nowhere during 2012.

If Capriles loses as the vast majority of the polls predict, reactionaries led by Capriles are plotting to incite insurrection, sabotage, and arson, while falsely claiming Chavez rigged the election and it was Capriles who actually won.

People close to the reactionary campaign of Capriles have boasted for months that there will be an insurrection in Venezuela if Capriles loses. Most who heard and read about these reactionary and treacherous claims believed that the bourgeois-led opposition backing Capriles would never carry out the plot against the government and the Constitution.

This plot and the carrying out of this plot are both treason.

Now, it looks like the reactionaries behind Capriles really intend to commit treason on Oct. 7, the election day.

What convinced a lot of people that Capriles and his crackpot reactionaries are for real about the proposed insurrection was a meeting that took place Sept. 12, 2012, at the Caracas home of Richard Mardo, a prominent opposition politician. Many top leaders of the bourgeois-led opposition and the bourgeois media in Venezuela were present, as well as some key people in and around the Capriles’ campaign. Capriles himself was not there.

THE DIPLOMATS

Also in attendance were diplomatic representatives of five states:

The diplomats were:

Paolo Serpi, the ambassador of Italy to Venezuela

Antonio Perez-Hernandez, the ambassador of Spain to Venezuela

Luiz Raygada Souza-Ferriera, the ambassador of Peru to Venezuela

James Derham, Charge d’ affairs of the USA to Venezuela

Pietro Parolin, Papal Nuncio to Venezuela

At least, a quarter of the opposition politicians in attendance, fearing the possibility of long prison terms for insurrection and treason, promptly leaked the news about the meeting to the Venezuelan government.

At the Sept. 12 meeting, Richard Mardo, the host of the gathering, said he doesn’t trust the National Electoral Council which administers elections in Venezuela. Using currently unpublished opinion polls and polls that, in the future, will be conducted on Oct. 7, Mardo said he “knows” that Capriles will win of Oct. 7 by a small margin, but the Electoral Council will doctor the results so it will look like Chavez won by a big margin. According to Mardo and others in attendance who agreed with Mardo, there are armed civilian groups ready to fight both the security forces of the Venezuelan government and Chavez’ civilian followers.

Although Mardo and his vocal accomplices didn’t mention the insurrectionary roles of reactionary local police officers serving under opposition mayors and US mercenaries exported to Venezuela by the imperialist regime in Washington, it is likely that these local police officers and US mercenaries have been assigned major counter-revolutionary roles.

The Venezuelan Government has already captured one of the US mercenaries.

James Derham, presumed to be CIA case officer because insurrections are CIA turf and because a mere charge d’ affairs is not supposed to represent a state where diplomatic attendance is mostly at the ambassadorial level. Derham represented the bourgeois regime in Washington which for decades has been obsessive about dropping bombs and shooting missiles at people.This imperialist regime’s most insane and bestial attack is called “shock and awe” in which the US imperialists in March 2003 dropped 5000 bombs and missiles on cities, towns, and villages of Iraq in only 48 hours. It was later discovered that the Washington regime’s accusations against Iraq were lies. About 36,000 people in Iraq were slaughtered in 48 hours, a colossal violation of human rights. The purpose of Derham’s presence the Sept. 12 meeting in Caracas was to intimidate the democratic government of Venezuela into submitting to Washington’s demands which will be delivered through the bourgeois-led opposition in Venezuela on or soon after Oct. 7, election day.

Most of the people who snitched said the Spanish and Italian ambassadors looked incredulous as they sat in the Sept. 12 meeting at Mardo’s home. Evidently the Spanish and Italian ambassadors couldn’t believe the crackpots (including US charge d’ affairs) who spoke at the meeting. Spain and Italy are two big capitalist countries in extreme financial distress and they are therefore desperate for any kind of assistance from US imperialists. The bourgeois regimes in Spain and Italy have recently been helpful to US imperialists, assisting in attacks on Arab countries in the Middle East. Now, the US imperialists want Spain and Italy’s help in Latin America.

It’s possible that the Venezuelan intelligence may have urged the Peruvian ambassador to attend the meeting.

One would think that the Papal Nuncio would have better political and diplomatic taste than to attend a meeting in which participants brazenly discussed insurrection and treason in a country to which the Nuncio — an expert on divne beings — is accredited. Perhaps the Holy See also needs a cash handout from US imperialists.

REACTIONARY INSURRECTION SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO QUELL

The state in Venezuela is still a bourgeois regime. But state power is passing from the bourgeoisie to the working class. Less than 40% of state power has so far passed to working class. The content of the state rests on which class chiefly exercises power and for which class power is chiefly exercised.

To quell the proposed insurrection with ease, the state should chiefly exercise power in favor of the working class, even though it not yet the working class that chiefly exercises power.

The key thing is to protect the working class and poor communities of Caracas from the violence of the reactionaries. It also makes sense to protect downtown or parts of the central city from the insane reactionaries.

On Oct. 7, the State should deploy its massive forces, increased to something like 200,000 troops, so that the major fighting takes place in rich or, at least, affluent communities of Caracas.

It is unlikely that the cowardly crackpots of the reactionary movement will use combat against armed revolutionary forces as a major tactic. It’s more likely that the crackpots will resort to sabotage, arson and random murder of civilians.

So, the State can push the reactionary crackpots where they will be blowing up and burning down rich communities which, after all, more or less support the crackpots.

Given this predicament, the crackpots may decide to forego their sabotage and arson.

The same strategy can be used in other cities.

In other words, force the unworthy rich and affluent residents to evacuate to the working class and poor communities where the rich and affluent will find not only safety but also
shelter and victuals until crackpots give up the rampage.

Fomer US Pres. Jimmy Carter, the head of the Carter Center in Atlanta which monitors elections all over the world and has observed to date over 90 elections — including two elections in Venezuela — said Friday Sept. 21, 2012, that “Venezuela has the best electoral system in the world.”