by A. Shaw
So, according to the article, Elizabeth Warren is the choice of “progressives” because she warns us about the threat to democracy posed by the concentration of capital in the hands of a small group of people. Apart from Bernie Sanders, the article alleges, no other high-profile politician warns us about this threat to democracy. But Warren is not running and it’s time to accept that fact. Last week, Warren and Clinton met before the big bourgeois media so that Warren could effectively endorse Clinton, attempting to lead Warren’s supporters into Clinton’s camp. Warren didn’t decide against running, the article argues, because Clinton has a big lead in the polls and a lot of money. Warren isn’t scared of Clinton, the article finds.Warren decided against running because she simply isn’t interested in the presidency, the article concludes.
When the article finds that Warren isn’t running, it stands on solid ground. But when the article speculates about Warren’s motive for not running, it skates on thin ice.
What is the likely effect caused by Warren’s decision not to run?
Recent polls in Iowa and NH average out as follows:
Clinton …… 38%
Biden……….15%
Warren …….  7%
Sanders ……  5%
Clinton leads Warren by 31 points in the chart above.
But in a head-to-head Clinton-Warren matchup in Iowa, Clinton ran 15 points ahead of Warren, at 51%-36%, a Jan 13-15 poll by Douglas Schoen shows.
The 15 point difference between the poll of the field and the poll of the head-to-head matchup implies that there is something illusory about Clinton’s big lead. We saw something like this in 2008 when Clinton suffered a meltdown after holding a big lead for over a year.
Who gets the mass of Warren’s 7% now that Warren is out?
Clinton’s appeal to Warren’s 7% rests mainly on Warren’s implied endorsements of Clinton even though Clinton says little or nothing about the threat to democracy posed by the concentration of capital.
Biden seems to have very little appeal to Warren’s “progressives.”
Sanders appeals to Warren’s “progressives” because he and Warren talk about the same things in the same way. But Clinton has to expose herself as laissez faire and a warhawk before the whole country takes a real close look at Sanders.
Most likely, the mass of the electorate will go for Sanders.