By A. Shaw
Two recent opinion polls show Nicolas Maduro, the proletarian candidate, ahead of Henrique Capriles, the capitalist candidate, in the race for president of Venezuela. The election will be on April 14 this year. Hinterlaces, a Venezuelan polling firm with a conservative middle class outlook, recently found Maduro leads Capriles by 18 points. Another survey by the International Consulting Services (ICS), a Venezuela polling firm with liberal middle class tendencies, shows Maduro leading Capriles by 17.7 points .
The election will pick a successor for the late Pres. Hugo Chavez who died of cancer on March 5.
Most likely, the principal cause — but not the only cause — of Maduro’s lead over Capriles in the two opinion polls is the categorical endorsement of Maduro from Hugo Chavez, a month before his death. The revolutionary sector of the working class feels and believes a vote for Maduro is tantamount to a vote for the late and glorious Hugo Chavez. It is hard to say how much of a lead Maduro would have over Capriles absent the Chavez’ endorsement or whether Maduro would even have a lead at all.
By disclosing his preference for his successor, Chavez rendered his last great service to the Venezuelan people and to their glorious revolution.
Three weeks before the presidential election last Oct. 7, Hugo Chavez led Capriles by about 18 points in most opinion polls. Chavez won on Oct. 7 with an 11-point margin. The results for April 14 this year may repeat the results for Oct. 7. In other words, Maduro wins with an 11-point margin.
In the October 2012 presidential race against Chavez and in the December 2012 governor’s race for the state of Miranda against Elias Jaua, Capriles showed himself to be something of “closer” — that is, a candidate who can take or protect a lead in the last inning or two of the game. Again, Capriles lost in October by 11 points and won in December by 5 points. It’s unclear whether Capriles will have time to show his stuff as a “closer” in the current race against Maduro because the campaign is only a month long. It closes right after it opens and opens right before it closes. But Capriles is trying to show his stuff. “Closers” take and hold the offense and that is exactly what Capriles is trying to do.
ICS research coordinator Lorenzo Martinez says Maduro’s 18-point lead over Capriles is “irreversible.” Some people in Maduro’s campaign agree.
The irreversibility of an 18-point lead over Capriles with three weeks left in the campaign is illusory. If Capriles could chop Chavez’s lead in Oct. 2012 from about 18 points to 11 points in the last three weeks of the campaign, Capriles surely can chop Maduro’s lead from 18 points to a tie in the same period of time, if Maduro any mistakes.
One such mistake is Maduro’s under use of his ministers to refute and to attack Capriles and Capiles lies about poor performance in specific areas of the Chavez’s administration.
Maduro should tell his under-used ministers “When Capriles lies about you, go get him.”
It was impossible to beat Chavez. Chavez was an electoral phenomenon or, in other words, a highly peculiar political presence. Maduro isn’t this kind of candidate. So, talk about the “irreversibility” of Maduro’s current lead in opinion polls before April 14 is crazy talk.
Maduro and his campaign should forget about this apparent “lead” in opinion polls and make the Maduro campaign 10 times more intense in terms of candidate and staff activity, GOTV, media operations, opposition research and publication, and volunteers.
