AfricaFocus Bulletin
June 30, 2016 (160630)
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

“Around 6.5 million deaths are attributed each year to poor air
quality, making this the world’s fourth-largest threat to human
health, behind high blood pressure, dietary risks and smoking.
Without changes to the way that the world produces and uses energy,
the ruinous toll from air pollution on human life is set to rise.
… Household air pollution, closely linked to a lack of access to
modern energy services, causes around half a million premature
deaths annually in sub-Saharan Africa, where four-fifths of the
population rely on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking,
and candles and kerosene lamps are extensively used for indoor
lighting.” – International Energy Agency (IEA)

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In a scenario based on current and anticipated trends and policies,
the IEA estimates that deaths due to household air pollution in
Africa may decrease by 110,000 by 2040. However, due to economic
growth, urbanization, and automobile emissions, outdoor air
pollution may rise from 300,000 to 450,000 over the same period.
Overall, there will be a deterioration in air quality, unless alternative new policies are
adopted for a “Clean Air Scenario”.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts taken from the executive
summary of the new report, as well as Chapter 2 on the Clean Air
Scenario and Chapter 10 on the situation in sub-Saharan Africa.

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on climate change and the
environment, and a set of talking points, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/intro-env.php

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

Energy and Air Pollution

World Energy Outlook Special Report

International Energy Agency, June 2016

http://www.iea.org / Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/jgrzd3j

Executive Summary (excerpts)

Air pollution is a major public health crisis, with many of its root
causes and cures to be found in the energy sector. Around 6.5
million deaths are attributed each year to poor air quality, making
this the world’s fourth-largest threat to human health, behind high
blood pressure, dietary risks and smoking. Without changes to the
way that the world produces and uses energy, the ruinous toll from
air pollution on human life is set to rise.

That is why this World Energy Outlook (WEO) Special Report is
dedicated, for the first time, to the links between energy, air
pollution and health. It sets out in detail the scale, causes and
effects of the problem and the ways in which the energy sector can
contribute to a solution. Energy production and use, mostly from
unregulated, poorly regulated or inefficient fuel combustion, are
the single most important man-made sources of air pollutant
emissions: 85% of particulate matter and almost all of the sulfur
oxides and nitrogen oxides. These three pollutants are responsible
for the most widespread impacts of air pollution, either directly or
once transformed into other pollutants via chemical reactions in the
atmosphere. They are emitted mainly as a result of:

* Poverty: the wood and other solid fuels that more than 2.7 billion
people use for cooking, and kerosene used for lighting (and in some
countries also for cooking), create smoky environments that are
associated with around 3.5 million premature deaths each year. These
effects are felt mostly in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,
where incomplete burning of biomass accounts for more than half of
emissions of particulate matter. Finer particles, whether inhaled
indoors or outdoors, are particularly harmful to health as they can
penetrate deep into the lungs.

* Fossil fuel-intensive development and urbanisation: coal and oil
have powered economic growth in many countries, but their unabated
combustion in power plants, industrial facilities and vehicles is
the main cause of the outdoor pollution linked to around 3 million
premature deaths each year. Coal is responsible for around 60% of
global combustion-related sulfur dioxide emissions – a cause of
respiratory illnesses and a precursor of acid rain. Fuels used for
transport, first and foremost diesel, generate more than half the
nitrogen oxides emitted globally, which can trigger respiratory
problems and the formation of other hazardous particles and
pollutants, including ozone. Cities can easily become pollution
hotspots, as they concentrate people, energy use, construction
activity and traffic. The impact of urban vehicle emissions is
heightened by the fact that they are discharged not from the top of
tall chimneys but directly into the street-level air that
pedestrians breathe.

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Chapter 2

Outlook for air pollution : Towards blue skies?

Highlights

* The IEA has undertaken a first-of-a-kind assessment of the impact
of energy and air pollution policies on air pollutant emissions
through 2040. This World Energy Outlook Special Report finds that
despite a global decline in emissions, existing and planned energy
sector policies are not sufficient to improve air quality: in our
central scenario, premature deaths attributable to outdoor air
pollution increase to 4.5 million in 2040 (from around 3 million
today), while premature deaths due to household air pollution fall
to 2.9 million (from 3.5 million today).

* The global results mask strong regional differences, which stem
from the energy mix and the rigour of energy and air quality
policies. In our central scenario, emissions continue to fall in
industrialised countries, while in China, recent signs of decline
are consolidated. Emissions generally rise in India, Southeast Asia
and Africa, as expected growth in energy demand dwarfs policy
efforts related to air quality. Poor air quality continues to affect
the poorest most adversely: by 2040, 1.8 billion people still have
no access to clean cooking devices (from 2.7 billion today),
exposing mostly women and children to harmful household air
pollution. The policies with the most impact on reducing emissions
include those that increase access to modern energy services in
developing countries, improve energy efficiency, promote fuel
diversification and control air pollutant emissions.

* The outlook for air quality is a policy choice to be made: new
energy and air quality policies can deliver cleaner air. This is why
the IEA proposes the Clean Air Scenario that builds on proven and
pragmatic energy and air quality policies and uses only existing
technologies. Their implementation provides citizens with cleaner
air and better health. In the Clean Air Scenario, premature deaths
from outdoor air pollution fall to 2.8 million in 2040 and from
household air pollution to 1.3 million. The benefits are largest in
developing countries: the share of India’s population exposed to PM
2.5 concentrations above the least stringent WHO target falls to 18%
in 2040 (from 62% today), while in China, it shrinks to 23% (from
56% today) and to almost zero in Indonesia and South Africa.

* Achieving the benefits of the Clean Air Scenario depends upon
implementation of a range of policies: access to clean cooking for
all is essential to reduce the use of inefficient biomass cookstoves
and associated PM 2.5 emissions. Emissions standards – strictly
enforced – in road transport are central to reducing NO X emissions,
in particular in cities. SO 2 emissions are brought down by
controlling emissions and switching fuels in the power sector, and
increasing energy efficiency in the industry sector. The additional
investment needs are not insurmountable: cumulative investment in
the Clean Air Scenario is 7% (or $4.8 trillion) higher than in the
New Policies Scenario. The value of the resultant benefits is
typically many times higher.

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Chapter 10: Africa (excerpts)

Highlights

* Africa faces multiple developmental and environmental challenges,
which are rooted in poverty and the source of a grave health burden
on the population. Air pollution from the energy sector is
increasingly a leading risk factor. Household air pollution, closely
linked to a lack of access to modern energy services, causes around
half a million premature deaths annually in sub-Saharan Africa,
where four-fifths of the population rely on the traditional use of
solid biomass for cooking, and candles and kerosene lamps are
extensively used for indoor lighting. Cities are becoming
increasingly choked with vehicles which are unregulated by emission
standards, by the use of back-up generators to mitigate the often
absent or unreliable electricity supply, and the widespread burning
of waste.

* The outlook to 2040 for Africa in the New Policies Scenario
[predicted on the basis of current & anticipated policies] is mixed.
Even though there is a general absence of current policy measures to
mitigate the adverse effects of air quality associated with the
projected 75% rise in energy demand, which means that PM 2.5
emissions in Africa grow by almost a fifth by 2040, improvements in
access to modern energy cause the annual number of premature deaths
attributable to household pollution to decrease by 110 000.

The share of the population relying on traditional cooking methods
falls from 68% today to one-third by 2040, and the share of people
without electricity access falls from 57% to 25%, bringing power to
over one billion more people. Power generation is projected to
almost triple over the period, with renewables (excluding biomass)
providing one-third of generation by 2040, twice today’s share.
Despite some improvements, however, strong population growth leaves
655 million people still without access to clean cooking, and half a
billion people without electricity access, and as a result over 360
000 premature deaths are still attributable to household air
pollution in 2040.

* In the Clean Air Scenario, PM 2.5 emissions fall by more than 80%
in 2040 relative to the New Policies Scenario, largely as a result
of achieving universal access to energy. SO 2 is more than halved
and NO X falls by three quarters relative to the New Policies
Scenario because emission standards in transport, industry and power
generation are introduced.

This means that by 2040, 220 000 deaths are prevented annually from
household air pollution compared with the New Policies Scenario.
Overall primary energy demand decreases by one-quarter compared with
the New Policies Scenario: energy is used more efficiently and the
consumption of all fossil fuels is reduced, and as a result, CO 2
emissions in 2040 fall from 1.8 Gt in the New Policies Scenario to
1.5 Gt in 2040.

The energy and air quality context

Parts of Africa are experiencing relatively strong economic growth.
The economic output of sub-Saharan Africa has doubled since 2000,
but remains below that of Germany, despite the population being more
than ten-times larger. Across the continent as a whole, gross
domestic product per capita has increased by more than one-quarter
over the past decade.

The population of the continent is rapidly growing and urbanising.
Africa is expected to be home to around 22% of the global population
by 2040, compared with 10% in 1971 and 16% today. Africa is today
the world’s most rural continent (with only around 40% of the
population living in urban areas), but it is one of the fastest-
urbanizing world regions – more than half of the population is
expected to live in urban areas by 2040.

Energy demand in Africa has risen by half since 2000 though per-
capita energy demand remains low at about one-third of the global
average. The energy mix is dominated by biomass, which accounts for
almost half of energy demand across Africa and has a share as high
as three-quarters of the total in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding
South Africa). Only one- third of the population of the continent
has access to modern cooking fuels – a low level matched only in
India – with biomass used extensively as a cooking fuel.

Electricity access is also the lowest in the world: around 635
million people, 57% of the population, do not have access to
electricity today. Per-capita electricity consumption in Africa is
one-fifth of the global average, with wide variations by country:
while almost all North Africans have access to electricity, only
one-third has access in sub-Saharan Africa, and this falls to just
17% when looking at the rural population. Nigeria alone has 96
million people without access to electricity. Those who do have
access to electricity experience frequent blackouts – Nigeria
experiences on average 33 power outages every month and rationing
due to inadequate supply and ageing infrastructure (World Bank,
2016).

Demand outstrips electricity supply, resulting in the cost of
electricity generation being significantly higher in many African
countries than in other world regions (AfDB, 2013). Industrial
activities are also compromised as a result of high prices. The many
positive efforts to provide electricity access across the continent
have not been sufficient to decrease the number of people without
access to electricity; Africa is the only world region where the
number of people without access to electricity has actually
increased since 2000, despite a significant decrease in numbers in
North African countries and some sub-Saharan countries, including
South Africa, Gabon, Botswana and Ghana.

Fossil fuels dominate the production of electricity, accounting for
more than 80% of total power supply. South Africa, which generates
almost 60% of all the power generated in sub-Saharan Africa, derives
94% of its power from coal. South Africa also accounts for around
25% of total oil consumption in sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria for
more than 20%, meaning that the remaining 40-plus countries
collectively consume less oil than the Netherlands.

While there has been increasing international focus on delivering
universal clean energy access, such as through the African
Development Bank’s New Deal on Energy for Africa, it is clear from
the UN SE4All tracking that progress falls substantially short of
what is required to attain clean energy access by 2030 (IEA and
World Bank, 2015).

These characteristics – rising energy consumption, concentrating
urban populations and persistent lack of energy access – have
contributed to ever-increasing air pollution, household as well as
outdoor. Around half a million premature deaths can be attributed to
household air pollution in Africa today, a health problem which is
closely related to the lack of access to modern forms of energy. The
traditional use of biomass for cooking causes severe emissions of
particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), as does the use of candles and
kerosene for lighting. Kerosene, used by many households that do not
have access to reliable electricity or alternative solutions, is the
primary lighting fuel in around half of African countries and is
also a grave source of fires and casualties in households (World
Health Organisation, 2016); programmes such as SolarAid, GOGLA and
Lighting Africa are promoting the use of solar lamps to help phase
out the use of these lighting fuels.

Indeed, 7.5 million tonnes (Mt) of PM 2.5 are emitted annually in
Africa today, of which almost three-quarters is from the burning of
biomass indoors. Damage to air quality from these sources affects
mostly the poorest population of Africa: while there is almost no
dependence on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking in
North Africa, only one-fifth of sub-Saharan Africans have access to
modern cooking fuels, leaving 755 million people to cook with solid
biomass, typically with inefficient stoves in poorly ventilated
spaces without chimneys.

In more than four-fifths of sub-Saharan countries, more than half of
the population relies on solid biomass for cooking, and in half of
these, the share is above 90%. Several countries have implemented
programmes to promote the use of cleaner and more efficient
cookstoves, the prime objective being to reduce the health effects
of pollution from indoor smoke. Kenya aims to eliminate kerosene use
in households by 2022 and improved biomass cookstoves are already
relatively available in urban areas. Kenya has also passed a law
that requires new buildings to be fitted with solar water heating
systems. Strong policies in Senegal have supported a switch to
liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and less than 30% of the urban
population now use solid biomass. Other countries, including Ghana
and Cameroon, have also made commitments to increase the share of
LPG for cooking and are developing related policy measures.

It has to be acknowledged, however, that in general rising incomes
alone have not been sufficient to result in increasing access to
clean cooking fuels and concentrating populations will likely
exacerbate this urgent problem (see Chapter 3 Spotlight), and
moreover, many improved biomass cookstoves on the market today,
though a great improvement on traditional cooking, still produce
enough PM 2.5 to be considered a health hazard.

Deaths in Africa attributed to outdoor pollution, at more than
210,000 per year in 2012 (WHO, 2016a, forthcoming), are less than
half of those attributable to household air pollution. As a result
of limited economic activity, concentrations of outdoor pollution is
low in most areas relative to other world regions, but the emissions
intensity of new economic activity is high. Today the major sources
of outdoor air pollution include old and unregulated vehicles, smoke
from indoor and outdoor cooking with biomass, the unregulated
burning of wood and waste (including the burning of toxic materials,
such as electronics), dust from dirt roads, and coal-fired power
generation, particularly in South Africa. The use of back-up diesel
generators (including an unknown but large number of small
generators in and around residences/apartments) to supplement
inadequate grid- based electricity supply is also a cause of noxious
emissions (IEA, 2014)

Measuring overall outdoor pollution is a major challenge: air
quality monitoring does not exist in most African countries. For
those cities in Africa that are monitored, the annual mean PM 10 and
PM 2.5 emissions exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) Air
Quality Guidelines levels in almost all cases (WHO, 2016b). A
satellite study suggests that between 2010 and 2012, 32% of West
Africans and 28% of the North African and Middle Eastern populations
are exposed to levels of PM 2.5 exceeding the WHO interim target-1
of 35 µg/m 3 , compared with none of the population of high-income
countries (Donkelaaer van, et al., 2015).

Nitrogen oxides (NO X) emissions in Africa were around 6.4 Mt in
2015, around half from vehicle tailpipe emissions and a quarter from
industry. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions were 5.8 Mt in 2015, 42%
from the industry and transformation sectors and 45% from power
generation, largely as a result of coal combustion in South Africa.
Some efforts have been made across the continent to reduce PM 2.5
emissions mainly through incentivising the use of modern cooking
fuels, such as LPG and natural gas, though pollutant emissions have
risen, as has the number of people without access to clean cooking.

However, South Africa, through the National Environmental Management
Air Quality Act of 2004, is one of the only African countries
comprehensively regulating air quality and setting emissions
standards, imposing limits on new and existing power plants and
industrial installations. Effectively securing compliance remains an
issue in South Africa (as in many parts of the world).

Transport is a major contributor to outdoor air pollution in Africa.
An old and growing vehicle fleet, poor fuel quality and rapid
unplanned urban growth all contribute to increasingly choked cities.
Proper urban planning as well as improving public transport systems
could reduce the number of vehicles on the road. Improving fuel
quality, particularly removing sulfur, is a necessary step towards
the use of improved vehicle technologies that reduce tailpipe
pollution. Leaded gasoline was largely phased out in the 2000s, but
fuel quality remains variable. Despite some regulation, the sulfur
content of diesel remains very high in many countries: in Egypt,
diesel sulfur content is up to 7 000 ppm, over 700 times the level
in Europe.

Only a small number of African refineries have the capacity to
produce low-sulfur fuels and, even though the value of the health
benefits derived from upgrading refineries may far outweigh the
costs, sufficient incentive for investment is lacking. Low quality
fuels not only contribute to tailpipe emissions, but prevent the
adoption of higher vehicle exhaust emissions standards. Such
standards are implemented to a very limited extent: only Nigeria and
South Africa have emissions standards reaching the level of Euro 2
(introduced in Europe in 1996) or beyond. Many countries ban or
place tariffs on the import of older vehicles to discourage the
dumping of outdated and inefficient vehicles, but their low price
remains an attraction. The age and lack of maintenance of vehicles,
weak enforcement of laws in place and variable fuel quality often
means that the gap between test-standards (where they exist) and
real-world operation can be particularly large.

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providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
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