GRANMA INTERNATIONAL

Havana. June 11, 2014

A multipolar world
Emir Sader

The most important shift in contemporary history came with the end of the Cold War, as it had been known, when one camp in the bipolar world disappeared, opening the door to the hegemony of U.S. imperialism.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, signed an agreement in Shanghai to broaden cooperation in all areas, and coordinate diplomatic efforts, to consolidate a comprehensive strategic relationship.

The United States immediately took advantage of its unquestioned superiority, taking smoldering conflicts to the level of military confrontation. This militarization was seen most acutely in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. Although each of these conflicts had distinct characteristics, they were all resolved militarily, following the pattern of invasion, occupation, bombing and overthrowing of the government.

Despite complications, this strategy was imposed without the presentation of serious obstacles to U.S. domination, until recently, when the conflict in Syria took an unexpected turn. Bombing of the territory was imminent, when a proposal formulated by the Russian foreign minister was accepted by the United States.

Military conflicts were unleashed by the U.S. in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya during the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, all following a pattern of invasion, occupation, bombing and overthrowing of the government.

The burden of previous military operations had begun to erode the hegemonic capability of the United States. It was significant that the first refusal to participate in the bombing of Syria came from the principal U.S. ally – Britain. Parliament refused to approve the country’s participation in another adventure, as a direct consequence of the invasion of Iraq, which led to the undoing of former Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Moreover, Obama was obliged to accept the Russian proposal since U.S. public opinion was not inclined to support another war with an uncertain outcome. Nor was the military convinced that a ‘surgical’ bombing operation would be successful. Not even his family supported a military solution.

The U.S. and European powers could not prevent Crimea from joining the Russian Federation, after a referendum on the issue was held.

Support for negotiation in Syria was extended to Iran – a related conflict. There has been progress, despite difficulties, in both cases, with Russia as the new protagonist within the process. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has seen its military options limited and been obliged to accept political terms negotiated in agreements between governments.

The situation in Ukraine, with its distinctive features, reflects this same trend.

Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa, as members of the BRICS alliance, are gaining influence economically and politically on an international level, as evidenced in this graphic from the St. Petersburg Summit.

With the disappearance of the USSR, western powers avariciously approached Eastern Europe, looking to incorporate the former Soviet Republics into the European Union and NATO.

Ukraine is a special case, since it is located directly on the Russian border and the ports of Crimea are essential to Russia, both militarily and commercially. The violent actions of pro-European Union forces – including the prohibition of the Russian language – have weakened their ability to unify a country with much regional diversity.

Clearly a dynamic has developed in which western powers and their media are denouncing Russia as supporting the dismembering of Ukraine, but find themselves prevented from intervening directly, generating a situation in which their options are limited.

The process of integration underway in Latin America and the Caribbean is indicative of what could become a multipolar world.

While western powers resorted to innocuous sanctions of Russia, Putin was meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign a broad energy agreement, as well as a plan to limit use of the U.S. dollar in trade between the two countries. The agreements contribute to the development an independent field of action, in opposition to that of the U.S. led bloc. The change is already noticeable in the Ukrainian situation, in which the U.S. has its allies – some more compliant than others – while Russia enjoys the support of BRICS countries, Brazil, India, China and South Africa.

The agreements reached by China and Russia; the strengthening of the BRICS alliance; and the process of integration underway in Latin America and the Caribbean are indicative of what could become a multipolar world. The coming years will confirm, or invalidate, this perspective.