Havana. May 28, 2014
http://www.granma.cu/idiomas/ingles/international-i/28may-A%20China.html
A China-Russia alliance?
Xulio RÃos
Has an alliance between China and Russia been conceived in Shanghai? Without a doubt we are seeing a substantial increase in strategic cooperation. Within the framework of Chinese foreign policy, the high profile collaboration based on the country’s own development interests and the international situation, rule out the establishment of traditional alliances, primarily based on military cooperation and support agreements signed before a third party. Caution must also been taken in regards to the current political situation, given that China is unlikely to support each and every step Russia takes, for example, in the Ukrainian crisis, or that Russia seconds China’s actions in its dispute with Japan.
Despite concerns, it is certain that, as of the second meeting held this year between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, cooperation between the two countries has crossed a new frontier, resulting in mutually preferential treatment in the nations’ respective foreign polices. After signing an agreement to supply Russian gas to China – valued in excess of 400 billon dollars, the largest contract in the Russian gas company’s history – other economic accords regarding major sectors, such as civil aviation – looking to compete with Boeing and Airbus; construction; automation; aerospace; transport; infrastructure – with the construction of the symbolic bridge over the Amur river, the first to link the countries; the creation of Special Economic Zones in Serbia and the Far East; and an increase in payments made in national currency – further isolating the dollar – were agreed upon.
All of this should result in an increase in trade and investments, currently well below their potential. Ninety billion dollars in 2013 could increase to 200 billion in 2020. If the countries are able to diversify their trade and move beyond energy, complementing this sector with industrial goods and advanced technology, Russia will not only be able to reduce its dependency on the European market, a current concern given the Ukrainian crisis, but also introduce substantial changes in its economic relations with China.
The two parties must work out differences over projects which could survive in some form. Such is the case with the revitalization of the Silk Road which China and the Euro-Asian Union led by Moscow are proposing. Or in development projects in Siberia, where demographic challenges might enter into the picture. Also in regards to the respective difficult relations the two countries maintain with other important nations.
More important than strategic energy cooperation and economic collaboration in general, the geopolitical factor is key in this new chapter of rapprochement. The understanding Russia and China share in their evaluation of global trends and the role of the West in their containment, could have consequences not only in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or the BRICS group, but also in the G20 and other multilateral forums in which their common position against unilateralism and hegemony is evidenced through concrete actions designed to weaken the power of their strategic rivals.
In a joint statement, the two countries reaffirmed their intention to resist “external interference” and “unilateral sanctions”, denouncing the damage caused by new information technologies to their sovereignty and demanding the internationalization of internet guidelines. Additionally, China and Russia emphasized their right to the preservation of their own political systems, values and lines of development.
Military cooperation is also advancing, although both nations are taking precautions not to give the wrong impression. A series of naval exercises, such as those carried out recently in the East China Sea, are accompanied by symbolic measures including the first joint inspection of shared borders. For 2015, the countries announced a new round of large-scale military exercises intended to reclaim the legacy of World War II, which they consider to be threatened, given negative interpretations which underestimate the role of the former USSR in defeating Nazi Germany and the minimizing of Japan’s responsibility for aggression in Asia.
If the rapprochement which we saw in Shanghai – an expression of greater cooperative and constructive collaboration – is added to initiatives not only intended to stop the plans of strategic rivals which seem to want to control the two countries, but also transform global architecture, we could see another leadership emerging. This will not only affect Asia, as Russia will recover space, influence and prominence, but the entire world. The U.S. is pursuing a strategic restructuring of relations in Asia, to contain China and station themselves in Russia’s periphery, to stop the consolidation of a tri-polar world. Working together, China and Russia could create the basis for a strategic global shift. (Rebelión)
