AfricaFocus Bulletin
September 14, 2016 (160914)
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

“Among 36 African countries surveyed in 2014/2015, Gabon ranks at or
near the bottom on every indicator of election quality and fairness,
according to citizen responses collected in September and October
2015. … Gabon ranks dead last in public trust in the election
commission. … [at the same time] Gabon ranks near the top in
favoring multiparty competition and term limits on presidents, as
well as in disapproving of one-party and one-man rule.” –
Afrobarometer

For a version of this Bulletin in html format, more suitable for
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click on “format for print or mobile.”

To share this on Facebook, click on
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Election observers agree the narrow victory for incumbent President
Ali Bongo in last month’s presidential election was almost certainly
the result of fraud. Yet his opponent, Jean Ping, is also a long-
standing member of the country’s elite, and is reportedly the father
of two children with the president’s half-sister. Ping’s support is
based largely on the fact that he is not a member of the Bongo
family, which has been in power since 1967, when Omar Bongo, Ali’s
father, came to power. The regime in this small oil-producing
country has been notorious for corruption, and for its close links
to the power structure in France, with Omar Bongo reportedly himself
a major influence for decades as a donor in French national
politics.

Ali Bongo has diversified international ties since taking office in
2009, reaching out to the United States and China. But France
remains Gabon’s dominant external partner, intricately intertwined
with both economic and political structures in the country.

For a short overview, see in particular “Gabon’s Bongo Family:
Living In Luxury, Paid For By Corruption And Embezzlement,”
International Business Times, February 15, 2013
(http://tinyurl.com/zordjcq). For more background, see the links
listed at the end of this Bulletin.

Gabon, like other Francophone African countries, is not well-known
to most English-speaking readers. But increasingly, the range of
sources available in English as well as French makes it possible to
access basic sources for both news and analysis.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin, focused on the current situation.
contains two short articles, from Chatham House in London and The
Daily Maverick in South Africa, and press releases from extensive
polling research by Afrobarometer (Everyone concerned about reliable
information on African public opinion should note that Afrobarometer
is currently experiencing a fiscal crisis, and its extraordinarily
useful and revealing research in more than 35 African countries is
threatened with cutbacks from donors, including USAID. Go to
http://www.afrobarometer.org for more background and to contribute
through paypal).

The Afrobarometer studies on Gabon reveal strong support for
democracy among Gabonese voters, but intense skepticism about the
capacity of the system to deliver. Political commentators agree that
significant reforms are highly unlikely, but there is no consensus
on the likely outcome of the dispute over the election results.

For the reader who has the time and internet bandwith to watch,
AfricaFocus highly recommends the Youtube playlist of the four
videos listed at the beginning of this Bulletin (To go directly to
the playlist, click on http://tinyurl.com/zollum3)

For up-to-date news coverage and analysis, see
http://allfrica.com/gabon (in English)
and http://fr.allafrica.com/gabon (in French), and particularly
http://www.lemonde.fr/gabon/ (in French)

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Gabon, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/country/gabon.php

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Announcement: New Resources on Illicit Financial Flows

Newly available on website of US-Africa Network – new resources on
Illicit Financial Flows and the Stop the Bleeding Africa campaign.
Go to https://usafricanetwork.org/home/issues/stop-the-bleeding-africa/

Thanks to Chris Root and Anita Plummer of the US-Africa Network for
preparing and sharing these resources, including “Top 10 Questions
About Illicit Financial Flows and Africa” and a carefully selected
and annotated “Resources about Illicit Financial Flows from Africa.”

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

Youtube Playlist with recent videos on the situation in Gabon

France 24, September 7, 2016 – part 1, 18 minutes & part 2 – 26
minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88h6q4P4z_Y and

London Business School, November 11, 2015, “My Two Years Working for
the Government of Gabon” – 22 minutes

Anonymous, September 12, 2016 – 6 minutes

Anonymous, June 13, 2013 – 4 minutes

************************************************

Electoral Chaos Leaves Gabon in a State of Uncertainty

Paul Melly, Associate Fellow, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Chatham House, 7 September 2016

https://www.chathamhouse.org/ – direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/h57jts2

The country’s democratic credentials have been deeply wounded by
dodgy official results, protest riots and a brutal government
crackdown.

Gabon’s model of political moderation and gradualist reform may have
just imploded. Without external mediation, a full audit of polling
station results and a hitherto absent readiness to compromise on the
part of President Ali Bongo Ondimba and his main challenger, Jean
Ping, the country risks being condemned to months or even years of
unstable and sullen post-election stalemate.

Mild though the crisis appears by the standards of more
authoritarian or conflict-torn neighbours, it is disastrously
damaging for Bongo’s long-held ambition of transforming himself from
dynastic heir into freely-elected architect of modernization and
reform. After seven years trying to mark his country out from the
fiefdoms of central Africa’s strongmen, he now risks cantoning
himself into the category of presidents whose hold on office depends
on power rather than consent.

Contested results

Official results for the 27 August presidential election gave Bongo
49.8% of the nationwide total, compared with 48.23% for Ping; two
candidates pulled out to leave Ping a clear run, while the minor
players who stayed in the race got trivial scores.

The final winning margin was just 5,594 votes. After severe defeats
for Bongo in western urban centres such as Libreville and Port
Gentil and with national average turnout at 59%, Bongo was
miraculously saved by results from his Haut Ogooué heartland, which
registered 95% support on a reported 99% turnout. In the context of
a highly secretive electoral system, such an outcome threatens to
fundamentally undermine Gabon’s democratic ambitions.

Yet the aftermath has been even more damaging. Furious protesters
rioted, setting light to the national assembly, other public
buildings and the shops of West African traders – a longstanding
target of popular resentment.

The government’s response has been uncompromising. During the night
of 31 August-1 September, security force units, supposedly searching
for rioters, took control of Ping’s campaign headquarters. There
were several deaths, while a number of casualties were taken to
hospital with gunshot wounds; dozens were arrested, and senior
opposition figures were still in the building, surrounded by
security forces, a day later.

Gabon, so often a broker in other nations’ disputes, now finds
itself being offered African Union crisis mediation. The justice
minister has resigned from both government and ruling party,
demanding a full audit of all the election counts, polling station
by polling station.

Bongo’s failed strategy

The violence is a tragedy for Gabon. Street protest is hardly new
but is usually curbed with routine policing and the odd volley of
tear gas. Moreover, this bloodshed represents a major failure for
Bongo’s leadership. He came to power in 2009 after the death of his
father, Omar Bongo Ondimba, who had ruled for four decades, in
elections that were opaque and widely seen as a continuation of the
status quo. His subsequent banning of the new Union Nationale
opposition party seemed to confirm this pattern.

But Ali has spent much of the past seven years trying to reshape
Gabon’s governance. He has sought to rebalance and diversify the
economy, improve the performance of the state and foster a more
equitable social model, tilting social services and public sector
wage structures towards the poorer citizens who had previously been
neglected in favour of the governing middle class. Key barons of his
father’s regime were marginalized, the ban on the Union Nationale
was lifted, and Bongo acceded to opposition demands for a biometric
electoral roll. Assets in France held personally by the Bongo family
were transferred to the ownership of the state.

Bongo had hoped that his measures to stimulate the economy and
protect the environment, bolster the efficiency of public services
and help the poor would allow him to shed his image as the inheritor
of dynastic power, and earn his own legitimacy through his own
performance as president. In the face of an opposition dominated by
the ancien regime power-brokers who he had forced out, Ali sought to
present himself as the real incarnation of change.

But several factors combined to undermine this strategy. The
influence of several prominent West Africans in the presidency and
in business circles close to the government was unpopular with many
locals. Like other oil producing countries, Gabon has been hit hard
by the collapse in world energy prices, despite its care in
nurturing a reputation as a prudent borrower in international bond
markets. And ultimately, Bongo under-estimated the scale of anger
and impatience for change in a country whose voters are well aware
of democracy’s advance elsewhere in francophone Africa – powerfully
symbolized by the popular revolution that felled Burkina Faso
strongman Blaise Compaoré in 2014.

Changed times

Many Gabonese feel it is now time to move on from the era of
dynastic rule, even in the refreshed and more modern form that Ali
Bongo Ondimba has provided.

Bongo seems to have been completely unprepared for the strength of
the response to the electoral pitch made by Jean Ping. As a former
regime veteran once married to Ali’s sister Pascaline, Ping could
not claim to be a new face. Indeed, having also served a term as
chair of the African Union Commission, he is very much part of the
establishment.

But he cleverly tapped into the current mood, presenting himself as
the man whose election would show that power in Gabon really could
change hands through the ballot box. A promise to serve only one
term enhanced this appeal – and usefully contrasted with Ali’s
aspiration to yet another extension of rule by the Bongo dynasty.

When most other opposition candidates dropped out at the last
minute, Ping was ideally placed to capitalize.

Furthermore, in the aftermath, Bongo has badly misread the evolution
of attitudes in the international community: France, the EU and the
US want to see a transparent and credible election process. Even
Paris, for so many years a supportive ally of the Bongos, is no
longer prepared to turn a blind eye. As a result, pressure is
mounting for a full breakdown of the vote, to show figures for every
single polling station. Privately, many diplomats feel it is clear
that Ping won, even if there was cheating on all sides.

Looking ahead, there seems no easy way out. The most consensual
option would be a full audit of the election count, with both
contenders fully committed to accepting the eventual result – a
course of action that would offer a face saving and honourable way
out to the loser. Without that, Gabon seems condemned to a prolonged
period of unrest and political confrontation. Even if Bongo hangs
on, his standing will be critically damaged.

*************************************************************

Afrobarometer Reports on Gabon

http://www.afrobarometer.org

In Gabon, overwhelming public distrust of CENAP and election quality
forms backdrop for presidential vote dispute

News Release, 1 September 2016

For full news release, as well as Afrobarometer report released on
September 6, visit http://afrobarometer.org/countries/gabon-0

Gabon’s presidential election dispute is playing out against a
background of overwhelming public distrust of the national election
commission (CENAP) and strikingly negative assessments of the
country’s election environment in advance of the August 2016 vote, a
new analysis by Afrobarometer shows.

Among 36 African countries surveyed in 2014/2015, Gabon ranks at or
near the bottom on every indicator of election quality and fairness,
according to citizen responses collected in September and October 2015.

Gabon ranks dead last in public trust in the election commission: A
majority (51%) of citizens said they do not trust the CENAP “at
all,” and only 8% said they trust the commission “a lot.”

Gabon also ranks among the worst in citizens’ perceptions of the
fairness of the vote count, the freeness and fairness of its
previous national election (2011), fear of voter intimidation or
violence, fair treatment of opposition candidates, and the
prevalence of voter bribery. Overall, Gabon citizens held the most
negative perceptions of how well elections function to ensure that
voters’ views are represented and to enable voters to remove leaders
who don’t do what the people want.

The Gabon findings are part of a new Afrobarometer report, to be
released 6 September 2016, on citizens’ perceptions of electoral
management institutions and the quality of elections, It is based on
almost 54,000 interviews in 36 African countries.

The new report, titled “Election quality, public trust are central
issues as African nations look toward next contests,” will be
available at http://www.afrobarometer.org.

Key findings for Gabon

* A majority (51%) of Gabonese respondents said in late 2015 that
they do not trust the CENAP “at all,” with 17% who trust it
“somewhat,” 24% “a little bit,” and only 8% “a lot” (Figure 1).
Among 36 African countries surveyed in 2014/2015, Gabon ranks last
in public trust in the election commission (Figure 2).

* Only 37% of citizens saw their 2011 election as having been
“completely free and fair” or “free and fair, but with minor
problems.” A majority said the 2011 election was “not free and fair”
(31%) or “free and fair, with major problems” (24%) (Figure 3).

* On perceptions of the election environment (Figure 4), seven in 10
Gabonese citizens (71%) said that votes are “never” or only
“sometimes” counted fairly. Only 15% said the vote count is “always”
fair.

* Almost two-thirds (64%) of Gabonese said they fear campaign-
related intimidation or violence at least “a little bit,” including
almost one-fourth (23%) who expressed “a lot” of fear. One-third
(32%) said voters are “often” or “always” threatened with violence
at the polls.

* A majority (56%) of citizens said that opposition candidates are
at least “sometimes” prevented from running for office. One in five
(22%) said this happens “often” or “always.”

* Three-fourths (77%) of Gabonese said the news media “never” or
only “sometimes” provides fair coverage of all candidates – the
worst rating among the 36 surveyed countries.

*Seven in 10 citizens (71%) said that voters are “often” or “always”
bribed during Gabon’s elections – far above the 36-country average
of 43%.

* Gabon ranks worst among 36 African countries in citizens’
perceptions of how well elections work. More than three-fourths of
Gabonese say elections perform “not very well” or “not at all well”
to ensure that elected officials reflect the views of voters (76%)
or to enable voters to remove underperforming leaders from office
(79%).

Afrobarometer

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that
conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic
conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in
Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013,
and findings from Round 6 surveys (2014/2015) are currently being
released. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the
language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative
samples that yield country-level results with margins of error of
+/-2% (for samples of 2,400) or +/3% (for samples of 1,200) at a 95%
confidence level.

The Afrobarometer team in Gabon, led by the Centre de Recherche en
Géoscience Politique et Prospective (CERGEP), interviewed 1,200
adult Gabonese citizens in September and October 2015. A sample of
this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of
+/-3% at a 95% confidence level. This was the first Afrobarometer
survey in Gabon.

***************************************************

Behind Gabon’s election dispute, citizens strongly support
multiparty democracy, reject autocratic alternatives

News Release, 2 September, 2016

For full news release, including figures and additional findings,
visit http://afrobarometer.org/countries/gabon-0

Behind Gabon’s eruption in post-election conflict, its citizens are
among the strongest in Africa in their support for multiparty
democracy and their rejection of non-democratic alternatives, a new
analysis by Afrobarometer shows.

Among 36 African countries surveyed in 2014/2015, Gabon ranks near
the top in favouring multiparty competition and term limits on
presidents, as well as in disapproving of one-party and one-man
rule, according to citizen responses collected in September and
October 2015.

Large majorities also expressed support for democracy in general and
for elections as the best way to choose leaders, although on these
issues Gabon ranks only average or below. Gabon’s less enthusiastic
endorsement of elections aligns with citizens’ strikingly negative
views on the national electoral commission (CENAP) and the fairness
of the country’s elections (see press release titled “In Gabon,
overwhelming public distrust of CENAP and election quality forms
backdrop for presidential vote dispute” at www.afrobarometer.org).

Findings on citizens’ perceptions of electoral management
institutions and the quality of elections in Gabon and 35 other
African countries will be released in a new Afrobarometer report on
6 September 2016.

Key findings for Gabon

*In interviews in September-October 2015, two-thirds (68%) of
Gabonese citizens said democracy is preferable to any other
political system, matching average support for democracy among 36
African surveyed in 2014/2015 (67%).

* Gabonese overwhelmingly rejected autocratic alternatives to
democracy. Nine in 10 citizens disapproved of one-party rule (91%)
and one-man rule (89%), including majorities who “strongly”
disapproved (Figure 1). These assessments place Gabon near the top
among surveyed countries. Seven in 10 Gabonese (70%) rejected
military rule.

* Three-fourths (76%) said regular, open, and honest elections are
the best way to choose leaders, compared to 82% across all surveyed
countries (Figure 2).

* In their support for multiparty competition (80%) (Figure 3),
Gabonese are second only to Ivoirians (82%) and far above average
(63%).

* Nine in 10 Gabonese (92%) supported limiting presidents to two
terms in office (Figure 4). Gabon’s support for term limits is
second only to Benin’s (93%) and well above the 36-country average
(75%).

[for full report, including figures and additional findings, visit
http://afrobarometer.org/countries/gabon-0

*************************************************************

Gabon: Jean Ping and the boy who didn’t cry wolf

Simon Allison

Daily Maverick, 6 September, 2016

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za – Direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/hodtpeh

Opposition leader Jean Ping is incensed that Gabon’s president stole
the recent election. He’s right to be. But maybe Ping should have
harnessed this fury earlier, when he was in a position to do
something about it. Instead, as top boss of the African Union, he
helped to legitimise dodgy polls and obscure accountability. Now he,
and Gabon, are paying the price.

Let me tell you the parable of the boy who didn’t cry wolf. One day,
in an African country of your choice, a wolf passed through the
village. Observing from afar, the boy said nothing, and called no
one, even as the wolf feasted. The next day, the wolf came to
another village. Again the boy saw, again the boy ignored the
tortured shouts of the villagers as they screamed and begged for
help. And so it went on, village by village, as the wolf devoured
his way through the continent; instead of raising the alarm, the boy
stayed silent.

And then the wolf came to Gabon, where the boy lived, and started
snapping its jaws in his direction. The boy screamed and shouted and
cried “wolf!” at the top of his lungs, but by then it was too late.
Everyone around him, everyone who could have helped, had already
been eaten.

The real-life star of this little story is Jean Ping, opposition
candidate for president in Gabon.

Ping is not a happy man right now. Last week, he lost the
presidential election by the slimmest of margins – just 6,000 votes
– and he believes the poll was rigged. “The whole world knows today
who is the president of the Republic of Gabon. It’s me, Jean Ping,”
he said. “Each time the Gabonese people have chosen their president,
the dark forces are always gathered to place he who was not chosen
as head of state.”

Ping is right, of course. These elections were stolen, and brazenly
so. Despite an average turnout of around 60%, an unbelievable 99.3%
was recorded in Haute Ogue, home province of incumbent Ali Bongo –
with Bongo winning 95% of the vote there. That statistically
impossible aberration made all the difference to the final count.

Ping has rejected the outcome, and is pursuing a legal challenge.
Meanwhile, an estimated 5 people have died in post-election violence
between rival supporters and security forces.

Bongo’s security forces may have pulled the trigger, but their blood
is also on Ping’s hands.

Ping, you see, was not always an opposition candidate. He wasn’t
always an outspoken advocate for free and fair elections. He wasn’t
always a fierce critic of dictators and police brutality.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

Although memories fade fast, we must not forget that it was only
four years ago that Ping was forced out of his position as chairman
of the African Union Commission. Between 2008 and 2012, he was the
continental body’s most senior and visible leader.

In this position, he oversaw and monitored elections all over
Africa: polls both free and flawed, and everything in between. But
instead of raising the alarm when something was wrong – instead of
crying wolf – Ping legitimised dodgy polls and obscured
accountability. The very same tactics that Bongo is now using
against him, Ping previously would rubber-stamp.

Take, for example, the Sudanese elections in 2010, in which
President Omar al-Bashir – then and still wanted for war crimes by
the International Criminal Court – strolled to victory in a vote
marred by intimidation, gerrymandering, and accusations of “massive
rigging” by an opposition group. Ping, who headed the African Union
observer mission, had a more generous take:

“These historic elections have indeed afforded the majority of the
Sudanese citizens the opportunity to exercise their civic and
democratic rights by electing representatives of their choice for
the first time in 24 years. The mission believes that the just-
concluded multiparty elections will enhance the peace and democratic
processes under way in the country.”

It also fell to Ping, early in his term, to lead the African
response to Zimbabwe’s tightly contested election in 2008. In the
first round, challenger Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic
Change led Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF. A state-sponsored campaign of
violence and intimidation forced Tsvangirai to withdraw from the
second round of the vote, which he was on course to win.

While the AU was involved in mediating the Zimbabwe situation, its
solution allowed Robert Mugabe – architect of the brutality- to stay
in charge as part of a government of national unity. Ping refrained
from condemning the violence, and downplayed the extent of the
crisis. A reading of the AU’s observer mission statement, following
Mugabe’s uncontested second-round victory, noted vaguely that “there
was violence in the run down to the elections”, but failed to
attribute blame; a neat diplomatic side-step that helped Mugabe’s
regime avoid responsibility.

As leader of the African Union Commission, Ping repeatedly failed to
enforce international electoral standards, or hold African
governments to account for human rights abuses. This is not a unique
failing; a general reticence to criticise is a characteristics of
the AU, and Ping’s successor Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is also rarely
outspoken.

But now Ping finds himself on the other side of the fence. Suddenly,
he is on the receiving end of a rigged vote and electoral violence;
suddenly, he wants those international standards enforced and human
rights observed. If only he had defended these virtues earlier, when
he was in a position of
influence and could have made a real difference. If only Ping had
cried wolf before it was too late. DM

*****************************************************

Links to additional articles recommended

“Gabon’s presidential election: are the opposition’s attempts at
unifying too little too late?,” by Oumar Ba
African Arguments, August 22, 2016
http://tinyurl.com/h7us69a

“Gabon is in chaos — and France is to blame,” Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry,
The Week, September 2, 2016
http://tinyurl.com/zu7wsj5

“Meet Ali Bongo Ondimba, Obama’s Man in Africa,” by Siobhán O’Grady,
Foreign Policy, April 5, 2016
http://foreignpolicy.com – Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/j2cjv7h

“The murky world of Omar Bongo,” BBC, May 21, 2009
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8056309.stm

“A fight inside Gabon’s kleptocratic dynasty exposes the complicity
of French business,” Emma-Kate Symons
May 01, 2015
http://tinyurl.com/hqb4lvt

“Keeping Foreign Corruption Out of the United States: Four Case
Histories: Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations,”
http://tinyurl.com/hvhqby4
September, 2010 – one of the case histories is President Omar Bongo
of Gabon – for a brief summary see
http://www.africafocus.org/docs10/usa1002.php

*****************************************************

AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.

AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. Please
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or to suggest material for inclusion. For more information about
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http://www.africafocus.org

Zimbabwe: #ThisFlag

AfricaFocus Bulletin
July 15, 2016 (160715)
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

“The Zimbabwean regime did not expect Pastor Evan Mawarire to be set
free on Wednesday night. But unprecedented public pressure forced
the magistrate’s hand, with a little help from blundering police.
Look away now, Comrade Bob, because Zimbabwe will never be the same
again.” – Daily Maverick, July 14, 2016

For a version of this Bulletin in html format, more suitable for
printing, go to http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/zim1607a.php, and
click on “format for print or mobile.”

To share this on Facebook, click on
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/zim1607a.php

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains a short news report on the
release of Pastor Evan Mawarire, who sparked the #ThisFlag citizens’
protest movement in Zimbabwe, and excerpts from a longer analytical
article by Zimbabwean political analyst Alex Magaisa.

For short powerful statements by Pastor Mawarire, from April  and
earlier this week, just before his arrest see

and

Another AfricaFocus Bulletin released today, not sent out by email
but available on the web at http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/zim1607b.php, includes a press
release and excerpts on a report released today in Harare: “Working
without Pay: Wage Theft in Zimbabwe.” This study, by the Labour and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe (LEDRIZ) and the
Solidarity Center, documents the failure of both government and the
private sector in Zimbabwe to pay wages to ordinary workers, despite
lavish pay and benefits for top executives.

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Zimbabwe, go to
http://www.africafocus.org/country/zimbabwe.php

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

Zimbabwe: Power to the pastor, power to the people as Mawarire walks

Simon Allison

Daily Maverick, July 14, 2016

http://tinyurl.com/zsebl3k

The Zimbabwean regime did not expect Pastor Evan Mawarire to be set
free on Wednesday night. But unprecedented public pressure forced
the magistrate’s hand, with a little help from blundering police.
Look away now, Comrade Bob, because Zimbabwe will never be the same
again.

Harare Magistrate’s Court may once have been an impressive building,
but no longer. The walls are cracked. The paint is peeling. The
windows of Court Six, where Pastor Evan Mawarire’s remand hearing
was held on Wednesday, are caked with dirt. Only half the ceiling
lights work, and the wall clock is stuck at a little after seven
o’clock.

As a symbol for everything that’s wrong with Zimbabwe, it’s a
writer’s dream, as is the court’s location on the inauspiciously
named Rotten Row.

Except that something unexpected happened. The usual show trial
script called for Mawarire’s charges to be upheld, and bail denied,
to make sure that the state keeps him where they like to keep the
troublemakers: behind bars.

But no one followed the script. On Wednesday, rising above the
symbolism of these shabby surroundings, something went right in
Zimbabwe.

The first to break ranks were the lawyers, nearly 200 of them, who
volunteered to represent Mawarire en masse. Not all of them could
fit into the jam-packed courtroom – strictly standing room only –
but those who did were conspicuous in their sharp suits and business
attire.

They became even more conspicuous when Magistrate Vakayi Chikwekwe
asked who was representing the accused. As one, the lawyers in the
room raised their Law Society cards, an extraordinary image of
solidarity that gave goose bumps to everyone else watching – except,
perhaps, the none-too-undercover intelligence operatives, who
appeared to be carefully noting down faces and names. That the
lawyers present were undeterred by this danger underscores their
bravery.

“There are times when we have to shed our status as lawyers and push
for justice as citizens. It does not require a lawyer to see that
there is injustice going on here,” said Belvin Bopato, an attorney.

The hundreds, and at times thousands, of people gathered outside
were doing something equally unprecedented. They were protesting. In
Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, protesting is a dangerous, even fatal, activity.
Which is why it doesn’t happen very often, and never in these
numbers. But here they were on Wednesday, draped in the national
flag which has become such a subversive symbol of resistance,
chanting and singing and praying all through the day and early
evening as they waited for the magistrate to deliver his verdict.

“It’s been a while since Zimbabwe last had a voice, but now it has
found a voice. I’m here to stand in solidarity with Pastor Evan,”
said activist Mlambo Garikai.

The most unexpected plot twist, however, was delivered courtesy of
Magistrate Chikwekwe himself. It was possible to feel some sympathy
for the magistrate, who found himself in a classic Catch-22: flout
the law but keep his political bosses happy; or follow the law but
anger his superiors, who have the power to make him very
uncomfortable indeed.

It was obviously a difficult decision. Even after starting
proceedings six hours late, Chikwekwe called several long
adjournments, and only delivered his verdict full 90 minutes after
it was due.

As they waited, the audience inside the courtroom sang and danced,
while the large crowd outside began to get impatient. Had Mawarire
not been released, a confrontation between riot police and
protesters would probably have been unavoidable.

But the law won. After lecturing the police and prosecutors about
their mistakes – most notably in substituting the original charges
with a much more serious treason charge just minutes before the
hearing began – Chikwekwe told Mawarire he was free to go.

The courtroom erupted into cheers and ululations, as did the
thousands of people waiting outside, who by now were holding
candles. “I feel ecstatic. We have shown that if we can come
together we can push the system to work normally. What happened here
today gives us hope,” said Elton Kapfunde, one of the pastor’s many
supporters.

Ngonidzashe Marera, a friend of Mawarire’s, said that the verdict
showed the strength of the pastor’s faith. “I’m over the moon. God
is there for us. Good has prevailed. Man’s arms are too short to box
with God, clearly.”

If Robert Mugabe’s regime falls – and that day is considerably
closer today than it was yesterday – then historians will look back
and pinpoint this as the moment when the tide began to turn. There’s
no doubt that the sheer scale of the solidarity movement frightened
the ruling party’s decision-makers, who never intended to let
Mawarire walk, and may even have forced Magistrate Chikwekwe’s hand.

On Wednesday, Zimbabweans in their thousands took on the regime, and
won. And now that they’ve done it once, they can and will do it
again.

************************************************

Citizens’ movement and the resurgence of the repressive state in
Zimbabwe

Alex T. Magaisa

July 8, 2016

http://alexmagaisa.com – Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/jxx32ed

[Excerpts only. Full text available at links above]

[Alex Magaisa lectures at Kent Law School, University of Kent and
can be contacted at wamagaisa@gmail.com Twitter: @wamagaisa]

In one incident, a young man is dragged out of his room, his pair of
trousers half down and without shoes. He tries desperately to raise
his trousers and pleads with them. But they don’t listen and they
don’t care. They pummel him with baton sticks as if they are beating
an unwelcome intruder. He falls to the ground, perhaps the self-
preservation instinct to make himself small, but they respond by
beating him up with even greater intensity. He yelps in pain and
tries to cover his head to minimise further damage but this does not
deter them. They yank him up and continue to beat him as if they
were beating a drum.

It’s not fiction. … These are the images of Zimbabwe which the
world has been seeing this week – a reminder of the dark days when
the Zimbabwean state has typically turned upon its citizens with
intense brutality. The beating happened after commuter omnibus
drivers went on strike, protesting against too many roadblocks by
police, at which members of the police force extort bribes from them
on a daily basis.

Then on Wednesday [July 6], Zimbabwe witnessed the #ZimShutDown2016,
following a call for a mass stay-away from work. Harare and most
cities were deserted. People had heeded the call. There was a heavy
police and army presence in towns around the country as well as
rural centres like Jerera, where pictures showed scores of police
roaming the centre. Social media was down for a while, with people
unable to access WhatsApp and most suspected the state had a hand in
the breakdown.

Efforts by government spin-doctors to downplay the mass stay-away
failed. Schools were closed and unpaid for the month of June, civil
servants in the health and education sectors led the way and stayed
away from work. Government had to deploy the military in public
health institutions to provide cover. Apart from the violent
clampdown, the state issued several warnings to the public. The
instruments of repression were being mobilised. This typical of the
Zimbabwean state, reacting like a bully who suddenly panics at the
sight of a challenge from an unexpected and unfamiliar source and
whose first instinct is to flex muscles and bare teeth in order to
frighten with a generous amount of threats.

Historic moment

When the story of this week’s events is told to future generations,
its place and significance in the trajectory of Zimbabwean political
history will not be lost on historians and keen observers of
Zimbabwean politics. … I believe the events of last week,
beginning with the protests in Beitbridge are a seminal moment in
the sense that they demonstrate for the first time in a long period,
a re-awakening of the citizens and a demonstration of their capacity
to assert themselves in their capacity as citizens, not as followers
of political parties or organised civil society. …

The #ZimShutDown of this week was, in some ways, unique in its
galvanising and mobilising effect without the aid or leadership of
traditional actors on the political and civil society landscape. For
the first time in a long time, the traditional political actors,
both in the ruling establishment and the opposition were by-standers
in an historic moment championed largely by ordinary citizens. I am
careful to say for the first time in a long time principally because
it is not the first time this has happened in our polity. The events
of 1998 spring to older minds, when Zimbabweans came together in a
huge flood of dissent against deteriorating economic conditions.
Taking the lead was the then vibrant labour movement, with the ZCTU
at the apex, led by Morgan Tsvangirai. Many young Zimbabweans have
only known him as an opposition politicians, but at the time, he was
a leader of the labour unions. Civil society movement was still then
in its nascent stages but those were the moments when organisations
such as the National Constitutional Assembly began to assume a
leading role in campaigning for political reform under the flagship
call for constitutional reforms. For the first time since
independence, the people of Zimbabwe heeded the call for a mass
stay-away. It was also unique in that many employers backed the
call, signalling an interesting milieu ideologies in one moment; a
strange mixture of capitalists and socialists.

Lessons from the past

This is not the place to narrate and analyse the historic events of
the late 1990s. … I also make reference to 1998 so that the
present generation of leaders and activists in the citizens’
movement has a wider appreciation of the context within which
#ZimShutDown2016 and related activities are taking place. While
there are key aspects that distinguish the current citizens’
movement, such as the role and influence of social media, it is by
no means an invention of the current generation. It is important to
locate it neither as the beginning of history of activism nor the
end of it, but as part of an incremental process that has been in
motion for a long time and has manifested in various forms and has
been prosecuted by various actors at each stage. … Zimbabwe’s
post-independence struggle for democratic reform is against a well-
established and deeply-entrenched electoral authoritarian regime,
this citizens’ movement must be seen in this context as the latest
of waves chipping away at a wall which is backed by the military.

While the older generation should be more receptive to the new wave
of activism and its leaders and not view them with suspicion, the
new generation of activists must also be mindful of and respect
history and those who have already been in the trenches.

There might be lessons to be learned from that era, which the
present generation can use to avoid old mistakes. This is because I
have noticed a tendency on social media, where people demand instant
results and sometimes end up utterly deflated and defeated when
things don’t happen as quickly as anticipated. Yet if one
understands the bigger picture, knowing the origins of this
struggle, including its highs and lows, they might have a better
appreciation of the incremental nature of the process; indeed, a
better appreciation of the fact that the struggle is a slow-cooked
dish, not the pre-cooked instant microwave variety.

Catching traditional actors by surprise

An interesting feature of the current citizens’ movement is that it
seems to have caught the ruling party, the opposition and
traditional civil society by surprise and consequently, none of them
have been quite sure of how to react to it. …

The problem is that the leadership of traditional political parties
and organised civil society has not evolved over the same period,
while society has changed and its demands and expectations have also
changed. Like ZANU PF, opposition parties and organised civil
society have not confronted and dealt with succession issues and the
culture of entitlement of those in leadership positions. This has
resulted in a traffic jam in the leadership of parties and
organisations the civil and political spaces, with those in front
unwilling and unable to move or give way to new generations or
ideas. Traditional political parties and civil society organisations
are notoriously hierarchical and exclusionary in the selection of
leadership. …

The traditional opposition and organised civil society appear to
have struggled to come to terms with this new phenomenon. Do they
embrace it? Do they join it? Are they leading it? Are they
followers? How exactly do they accommodate this phenomenon which has
not emerged from their usual programmes at traditional work-shops.
… Both the opposition and civil society groups need to self-
introspect thoroughly and reflect on the new phenomenon of the
citizens’ movement and consider their role in the changing political
and civil landscape.

New challenge for ZANU PF

This unconventional citizens’ movement has also caught ZANU PF by
surprise, presenting a new challenge on an unfamiliar front. The old
party is used to dealing with the traditional political opposition
or organised civil society, which they invariably bundle together as
Western-sponsored opposition or regime change agents. The state and
ZANU PF have developed a wide array of tools to deal with these
traditional opposition in civil and political spaces – through
infiltration of political organisations, banning political
gatherings and meetings, deploying laws meant for political
organisations, propaganda through state media, etc. However, they
have not had to deal with a citizens’ movement of this kind, with a
large base in social media. …

It is clear that the regime is currently unsure about the nature of
the latest challenge. The term they have settled on for now is that
the dissent and activism is being orchestrated by a “Third Force”,
even though no-one has given substance to this term to clarify who
or what exactly constitutes this force. For the government, there is
a sinister force beyond the traditional opposition which they are
not equipped to handle. They can’t quite define what it is. They
cannot believe that citizens can consolidate and find expression in
non-traditional political and civil spaces.

In all this, of course, is a typically stubborn refusal by ZANU PF
to acknowledge that the people of Zimbabwe can think for themselves
and make their own decisions. For the ZANU PF regime, any resistance
to its policies and style of governance cannot be from and by the
people of Zimbabwe making independent decisions. Rather, it has to
be instigated and influenced by foreign elements, usually the West.
This is a very condescending mindset against fellow Zimbabweans. It
shows the character of the state, where citizens are like children
who need guardians to think and decide for them and if it’s not the
government, it has to be another sinister third party doing it on
their behalf. Individuals within the state are not regarded as
rational beings capable of making their own decisions. The irony is
that a government which claims independence and sovereignty of the
nation does not believe that the people from whom that sovereignty
and authority to govern are derived can make independent decisions
to express grievances unless they are influenced by the West. …

Social media

One key factor that distinguishes the current citizens’ movement
from similar movements in the past is the availability and popular
use of social media. When #This Flag movement started through social
media messages by Pastor Evans Mawarire a couple of months ago, it
was initially dismissed as “a passing fad”. It was dismissed as
nothing more than social media chatter, which would dissipate
quickly as people moved on to the next internet fad. There was
little appreciation of its capacity to galvanise sentiment and
passion among people both in cyber and physical spaces.

Soon however, representatives of #ThisFlag movement were engaging
directly with authority, one example being a public meeting held
with the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor, Dr John Mangundya over
concerns around the issue of bond notes. That in itself was an
indication of a so-called social media-based movement transcending
cyberspace and finding recognition and accommodation in physical
spaces.

After seemingly dismissing the social media as irrelevant within
Zimbabwean political spaces, the government has reacted with panic
to the real potential of social media. The Minister of Information,
Chris Mushowe, on 7 July 2016 issued a long statement in which he
warned what he called “misguided malcontents” who are allegedly
misleading people into protests against government. …

However, by contrast one of the key things which social media has
done in the Zimbabwean struggle is to empower citizens to fight
against such government manipulation though information-sharing
networks which have reduced barriers in time and space between
citizens across the world. This way, a person in Tsholotsho is
communicating with his fellow citizens in Mutare, at Sadza, in
London, Sydney or New York and Cape Town, sharing valuable data,
information, tools and advice. The propaganda machinery has faced
serious challenges from social media because citizens are able to
instantly scrutinise, challenge, and dismiss the lies and
fabrications in the state media. Each morning, Zimbabweans scour the
papers, pick stories from all media and dissect them, showing
absurdities and exposing weaknesses and contradictions in propaganda
to a wider audience. Citizens no longer have to rely on what the
papers tell them. They also listen to what fellow citizens are
saying through social media. Citizens no longer have to wait for the
media to share information, as there has been an upsurge in citizen
journalism with social media users sharing videos and uploading them
by the second. By the time the traditional media shows its images
and videos, they would have long circulated among the people through
social media. It is truly amazing to see the way information is
passed and spread across wider field on via Twitter, Facebook and
WhatsApp messages. Oft-times I have been amazed as I have received
my own work which I would have shared: it will be coming from
multiple sources with the hour, itself a demonstration of the power
of social media, which the Zimbabwean state and opposition have
until now underestimated as they have focused on the traditional
spaces. Hence when the government misrepresents the law, lawyers
instantly challenge it and respond through social media, providing a
counter-view and in the process empowering other users.

…

The likelihood is that Zimbabwe will follow Russia’s path and enact
laws which specifically target social media users. The template for
such laws already exists in Putin’s Russia …

It is fair to predict that the Zimbabwean government will be fast-
tracking a law on social media usage based on the Russian template
and there will be a number of quick convictions and jail sentences
against users designed as examples to the rest of the population.
…

Exclusion

The government has also resorted to typical strategies of exclusion.
… It’s the politics of exclusion where those deemed to be citizens
are protected, while the excluded are deserving of no protection –
they are dehumanised. This dehumanisation makes it easier for those
charged with the job of getting rid of them. …

Within the Zimbabwean political context, the Homo Sacer [person
excluded] is a person who opposes or dissents from ZANU PF.
Zimbabwe’s Homo Sacer is identified by the labels ascribed to them
and by far the most common label of exclusion is “sell-out”. To be a
“sell-out” is to be defined as the worst form of being within the
Zimbabwean political space. You are banished to the margins and are
deemed worthy of the death sentence. …

In more recent years, a term that is close to “sell-out” is to be
labelled a “regime change agent”. This term has been used liberally
against any person who opposes or is deemed to oppose ZANU PF. Like
a “sell-out” a “regime change agent” is regarded with contempt in
ZANU PF circles and deserves the worst treatment and punishment.
Another term of exclusion is “dissident”. …

These terms of exclusion are dangerous and reckless as they are
often a prelude to atrocities against perceived opponents, as the
Rwandan Genocide showed, where targeted communities were
continuously labelled “cockroaches” by the media, itself a label of
dehumanisation which fuelled the rampant killings. It is therefore
important to monitor how this language of exclusion and banishment
evolves in the coming weeks. These are labels of dehumanisation
intended to demonstrate that a life is not worthy of any protection
or recognition. It is the kind of hate speech which is prohibited by
the Constitution for good reason because it fuels atrocities. It is
therefore irresponsible for government, Ministers and state media to
employ these labels of exclusion and dehumanisation.

Apart from these labels, the most common form of banishment and
exclusion is through criminalisation of behaviour and sending people
to jail. …

The rural frontier

One issue that remains critical in the Zimbabwean political and
civil society landscape is the rural frontier. For a long time, it
has been ZANU PF’s stronghold. The 2012 census showed that 67% of
the population is rural, which means urban areas host only 33% of
the population. Since electoral politics is a numbers game, ZANU
PF’s political strategies are centred on retaining control of the
rural constituency. Traditional opposition parties and organised
civil society have always done very well in urban areas, as shown by
the MDC’s success in Harare, Bulawayo and other urban areas. The new
citizens’ movement which has made waves in recent weeks has been
concentrated in the urban areas. In this regard therefore, it is not
very different from the traditional political opposition and
organised civil society. The civil and political spaces they are
occupying are well-trodden paths. The novelty is in the use of
social media and cross-party appeal arising from the issues around
which the citizens’ movement is built. However, like the traditional
actors in politics and organised civil society, they are yet to
crack the rural constituency. There is a chance that social media
platforms like WhatsApp might make in-roads in the rural
constituency, but the response of the state machinery, through
criminalisation, warnings, threats and false claims that they can
see what social media users are doing are likely to affect the
impact of social media. ZANU PF only has to trigger its rural
machinery of intimidation and the ever-fearful and vulnerable
population will be cowed into submission.

Resurgence of the repressive state

…

It is clear that the current state is a mirror image of the colonial
state. The same methods and strategies are being deployed against
citizens. When Welshman Ncube analysed the continuities between the
colonial and post-independence state, he found that there had been
no effort whatsoever to dismantle the repressive state. Ncube wrote:
“the culture of the Rhodesian legal system was one of extreme
brutality in both content and methods of law enforcement”. This was
echoed by Jonathan Moyo, who wrote at the time: “At independence,
the Zimbabwean nationalist leadership wittingly or unwittingly
failed to broaden democracy but embraced the oppressive institutions
and legal instruments such as the Rhodesian-imposed state of
emergency which took ten years to be lifted.” This was in the late
1980s at a time when ZANU PF was trying to impose the one-party
state but the same arguments remain applicable today and if anything
the repressive state has become stronger and more ruthless. The
current reaction of the Zimbabwean government to the citizens’
protests has attracted the same reaction which is characterized by
intolerance, violence and repression.

During the first ten years of independence, the government
maintained a state of emergency, again inherited from the Rhodesian
state. …

Going forward, we are likely to see more arrests of activists in the
citizens’ movement. Ordinary members of the public will also be
arrested and prosecuted as examples to others. There will also be
new laws to criminalise conduct on social media and other similar
spaces. There will be further statements and warnings from the
coercive elements of the state, all designed to deter and scare
people from using social media to challenge government. In this
regard, the citizens’ movement will find that its struggle is really
not very different from the struggle which the traditional
opposition parties and organized civil society have faced in the
past. The question is whether this new citizens’ movement has
devised new tools to overcome or get around these impediments. In
other words, are the citizens prepared to defend their leaders and
their rights in a manner that is different from how traditional
opposition parties and organised civil society have done in the
past?

…

*****************************************************

AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.

AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. Please
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mentioned. For a full archive and other resources, see
http://www.africafocus.org

AfricaFocus Bulletin
June 30, 2016 (160630)
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

“Around 6.5 million deaths are attributed each year to poor air
quality, making this the world’s fourth-largest threat to human
health, behind high blood pressure, dietary risks and smoking.
Without changes to the way that the world produces and uses energy,
the ruinous toll from air pollution on human life is set to rise.
… Household air pollution, closely linked to a lack of access to
modern energy services, causes around half a million premature
deaths annually in sub-Saharan Africa, where four-fifths of the
population rely on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking,
and candles and kerosene lamps are extensively used for indoor
lighting.” – International Energy Agency (IEA)

For a version of this Bulletin in html format, more suitable for
printing, go to http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/air1606.php, and
click on “format for print or mobile.”

To share this on Facebook, click on
https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=
http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/air1606.php

In a scenario based on current and anticipated trends and policies,
the IEA estimates that deaths due to household air pollution in
Africa may decrease by 110,000 by 2040. However, due to economic
growth, urbanization, and automobile emissions, outdoor air
pollution may rise from 300,000 to 450,000 over the same period.
Overall, there will be a deterioration in air quality, unless alternative new policies are
adopted for a “Clean Air Scenario”.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains excerpts taken from the executive
summary of the new report, as well as Chapter 2 on the Clean Air
Scenario and Chapter 10 on the situation in sub-Saharan Africa.

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on climate change and the
environment, and a set of talking points, visit
http://www.africafocus.org/intro-env.php

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

Energy and Air Pollution

World Energy Outlook Special Report

International Energy Agency, June 2016

http://www.iea.org / Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/jgrzd3j

Executive Summary (excerpts)

Air pollution is a major public health crisis, with many of its root
causes and cures to be found in the energy sector. Around 6.5
million deaths are attributed each year to poor air quality, making
this the world’s fourth-largest threat to human health, behind high
blood pressure, dietary risks and smoking. Without changes to the
way that the world produces and uses energy, the ruinous toll from
air pollution on human life is set to rise.

That is why this World Energy Outlook (WEO) Special Report is
dedicated, for the first time, to the links between energy, air
pollution and health. It sets out in detail the scale, causes and
effects of the problem and the ways in which the energy sector can
contribute to a solution. Energy production and use, mostly from
unregulated, poorly regulated or inefficient fuel combustion, are
the single most important man-made sources of air pollutant
emissions: 85% of particulate matter and almost all of the sulfur
oxides and nitrogen oxides. These three pollutants are responsible
for the most widespread impacts of air pollution, either directly or
once transformed into other pollutants via chemical reactions in the
atmosphere. They are emitted mainly as a result of:

* Poverty: the wood and other solid fuels that more than 2.7 billion
people use for cooking, and kerosene used for lighting (and in some
countries also for cooking), create smoky environments that are
associated with around 3.5 million premature deaths each year. These
effects are felt mostly in developing Asia and sub-Saharan Africa,
where incomplete burning of biomass accounts for more than half of
emissions of particulate matter. Finer particles, whether inhaled
indoors or outdoors, are particularly harmful to health as they can
penetrate deep into the lungs.

* Fossil fuel-intensive development and urbanisation: coal and oil
have powered economic growth in many countries, but their unabated
combustion in power plants, industrial facilities and vehicles is
the main cause of the outdoor pollution linked to around 3 million
premature deaths each year. Coal is responsible for around 60% of
global combustion-related sulfur dioxide emissions – a cause of
respiratory illnesses and a precursor of acid rain. Fuels used for
transport, first and foremost diesel, generate more than half the
nitrogen oxides emitted globally, which can trigger respiratory
problems and the formation of other hazardous particles and
pollutants, including ozone. Cities can easily become pollution
hotspots, as they concentrate people, energy use, construction
activity and traffic. The impact of urban vehicle emissions is
heightened by the fact that they are discharged not from the top of
tall chimneys but directly into the street-level air that
pedestrians breathe.

*****************************************************

Chapter 2

Outlook for air pollution : Towards blue skies?

Highlights

* The IEA has undertaken a first-of-a-kind assessment of the impact
of energy and air pollution policies on air pollutant emissions
through 2040. This World Energy Outlook Special Report finds that
despite a global decline in emissions, existing and planned energy
sector policies are not sufficient to improve air quality: in our
central scenario, premature deaths attributable to outdoor air
pollution increase to 4.5 million in 2040 (from around 3 million
today), while premature deaths due to household air pollution fall
to 2.9 million (from 3.5 million today).

* The global results mask strong regional differences, which stem
from the energy mix and the rigour of energy and air quality
policies. In our central scenario, emissions continue to fall in
industrialised countries, while in China, recent signs of decline
are consolidated. Emissions generally rise in India, Southeast Asia
and Africa, as expected growth in energy demand dwarfs policy
efforts related to air quality. Poor air quality continues to affect
the poorest most adversely: by 2040, 1.8 billion people still have
no access to clean cooking devices (from 2.7 billion today),
exposing mostly women and children to harmful household air
pollution. The policies with the most impact on reducing emissions
include those that increase access to modern energy services in
developing countries, improve energy efficiency, promote fuel
diversification and control air pollutant emissions.

* The outlook for air quality is a policy choice to be made: new
energy and air quality policies can deliver cleaner air. This is why
the IEA proposes the Clean Air Scenario that builds on proven and
pragmatic energy and air quality policies and uses only existing
technologies. Their implementation provides citizens with cleaner
air and better health. In the Clean Air Scenario, premature deaths
from outdoor air pollution fall to 2.8 million in 2040 and from
household air pollution to 1.3 million. The benefits are largest in
developing countries: the share of India’s population exposed to PM
2.5 concentrations above the least stringent WHO target falls to 18%
in 2040 (from 62% today), while in China, it shrinks to 23% (from
56% today) and to almost zero in Indonesia and South Africa.

* Achieving the benefits of the Clean Air Scenario depends upon
implementation of a range of policies: access to clean cooking for
all is essential to reduce the use of inefficient biomass cookstoves
and associated PM 2.5 emissions. Emissions standards – strictly
enforced – in road transport are central to reducing NO X emissions,
in particular in cities. SO 2 emissions are brought down by
controlling emissions and switching fuels in the power sector, and
increasing energy efficiency in the industry sector. The additional
investment needs are not insurmountable: cumulative investment in
the Clean Air Scenario is 7% (or $4.8 trillion) higher than in the
New Policies Scenario. The value of the resultant benefits is
typically many times higher.

******************************************************

Chapter 10: Africa (excerpts)

Highlights

* Africa faces multiple developmental and environmental challenges,
which are rooted in poverty and the source of a grave health burden
on the population. Air pollution from the energy sector is
increasingly a leading risk factor. Household air pollution, closely
linked to a lack of access to modern energy services, causes around
half a million premature deaths annually in sub-Saharan Africa,
where four-fifths of the population rely on the traditional use of
solid biomass for cooking, and candles and kerosene lamps are
extensively used for indoor lighting. Cities are becoming
increasingly choked with vehicles which are unregulated by emission
standards, by the use of back-up generators to mitigate the often
absent or unreliable electricity supply, and the widespread burning
of waste.

* The outlook to 2040 for Africa in the New Policies Scenario
[predicted on the basis of current & anticipated policies] is mixed.
Even though there is a general absence of current policy measures to
mitigate the adverse effects of air quality associated with the
projected 75% rise in energy demand, which means that PM 2.5
emissions in Africa grow by almost a fifth by 2040, improvements in
access to modern energy cause the annual number of premature deaths
attributable to household pollution to decrease by 110 000.

The share of the population relying on traditional cooking methods
falls from 68% today to one-third by 2040, and the share of people
without electricity access falls from 57% to 25%, bringing power to
over one billion more people. Power generation is projected to
almost triple over the period, with renewables (excluding biomass)
providing one-third of generation by 2040, twice today’s share.
Despite some improvements, however, strong population growth leaves
655 million people still without access to clean cooking, and half a
billion people without electricity access, and as a result over 360
000 premature deaths are still attributable to household air
pollution in 2040.

* In the Clean Air Scenario, PM 2.5 emissions fall by more than 80%
in 2040 relative to the New Policies Scenario, largely as a result
of achieving universal access to energy. SO 2 is more than halved
and NO X falls by three quarters relative to the New Policies
Scenario because emission standards in transport, industry and power
generation are introduced.

This means that by 2040, 220 000 deaths are prevented annually from
household air pollution compared with the New Policies Scenario.
Overall primary energy demand decreases by one-quarter compared with
the New Policies Scenario: energy is used more efficiently and the
consumption of all fossil fuels is reduced, and as a result, CO 2
emissions in 2040 fall from 1.8 Gt in the New Policies Scenario to
1.5 Gt in 2040.

The energy and air quality context

Parts of Africa are experiencing relatively strong economic growth.
The economic output of sub-Saharan Africa has doubled since 2000,
but remains below that of Germany, despite the population being more
than ten-times larger. Across the continent as a whole, gross
domestic product per capita has increased by more than one-quarter
over the past decade.

The population of the continent is rapidly growing and urbanising.
Africa is expected to be home to around 22% of the global population
by 2040, compared with 10% in 1971 and 16% today. Africa is today
the world’s most rural continent (with only around 40% of the
population living in urban areas), but it is one of the fastest-
urbanizing world regions – more than half of the population is
expected to live in urban areas by 2040.

Energy demand in Africa has risen by half since 2000 though per-
capita energy demand remains low at about one-third of the global
average. The energy mix is dominated by biomass, which accounts for
almost half of energy demand across Africa and has a share as high
as three-quarters of the total in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding
South Africa). Only one- third of the population of the continent
has access to modern cooking fuels – a low level matched only in
India – with biomass used extensively as a cooking fuel.

Electricity access is also the lowest in the world: around 635
million people, 57% of the population, do not have access to
electricity today. Per-capita electricity consumption in Africa is
one-fifth of the global average, with wide variations by country:
while almost all North Africans have access to electricity, only
one-third has access in sub-Saharan Africa, and this falls to just
17% when looking at the rural population. Nigeria alone has 96
million people without access to electricity. Those who do have
access to electricity experience frequent blackouts – Nigeria
experiences on average 33 power outages every month and rationing
due to inadequate supply and ageing infrastructure (World Bank,
2016).

Demand outstrips electricity supply, resulting in the cost of
electricity generation being significantly higher in many African
countries than in other world regions (AfDB, 2013). Industrial
activities are also compromised as a result of high prices. The many
positive efforts to provide electricity access across the continent
have not been sufficient to decrease the number of people without
access to electricity; Africa is the only world region where the
number of people without access to electricity has actually
increased since 2000, despite a significant decrease in numbers in
North African countries and some sub-Saharan countries, including
South Africa, Gabon, Botswana and Ghana.

Fossil fuels dominate the production of electricity, accounting for
more than 80% of total power supply. South Africa, which generates
almost 60% of all the power generated in sub-Saharan Africa, derives
94% of its power from coal. South Africa also accounts for around
25% of total oil consumption in sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria for
more than 20%, meaning that the remaining 40-plus countries
collectively consume less oil than the Netherlands.

While there has been increasing international focus on delivering
universal clean energy access, such as through the African
Development Bank’s New Deal on Energy for Africa, it is clear from
the UN SE4All tracking that progress falls substantially short of
what is required to attain clean energy access by 2030 (IEA and
World Bank, 2015).

These characteristics – rising energy consumption, concentrating
urban populations and persistent lack of energy access – have
contributed to ever-increasing air pollution, household as well as
outdoor. Around half a million premature deaths can be attributed to
household air pollution in Africa today, a health problem which is
closely related to the lack of access to modern forms of energy. The
traditional use of biomass for cooking causes severe emissions of
particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), as does the use of candles and
kerosene for lighting. Kerosene, used by many households that do not
have access to reliable electricity or alternative solutions, is the
primary lighting fuel in around half of African countries and is
also a grave source of fires and casualties in households (World
Health Organisation, 2016); programmes such as SolarAid, GOGLA and
Lighting Africa are promoting the use of solar lamps to help phase
out the use of these lighting fuels.

Indeed, 7.5 million tonnes (Mt) of PM 2.5 are emitted annually in
Africa today, of which almost three-quarters is from the burning of
biomass indoors. Damage to air quality from these sources affects
mostly the poorest population of Africa: while there is almost no
dependence on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking in
North Africa, only one-fifth of sub-Saharan Africans have access to
modern cooking fuels, leaving 755 million people to cook with solid
biomass, typically with inefficient stoves in poorly ventilated
spaces without chimneys.

In more than four-fifths of sub-Saharan countries, more than half of
the population relies on solid biomass for cooking, and in half of
these, the share is above 90%. Several countries have implemented
programmes to promote the use of cleaner and more efficient
cookstoves, the prime objective being to reduce the health effects
of pollution from indoor smoke. Kenya aims to eliminate kerosene use
in households by 2022 and improved biomass cookstoves are already
relatively available in urban areas. Kenya has also passed a law
that requires new buildings to be fitted with solar water heating
systems. Strong policies in Senegal have supported a switch to
liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and less than 30% of the urban
population now use solid biomass. Other countries, including Ghana
and Cameroon, have also made commitments to increase the share of
LPG for cooking and are developing related policy measures.

It has to be acknowledged, however, that in general rising incomes
alone have not been sufficient to result in increasing access to
clean cooking fuels and concentrating populations will likely
exacerbate this urgent problem (see Chapter 3 Spotlight), and
moreover, many improved biomass cookstoves on the market today,
though a great improvement on traditional cooking, still produce
enough PM 2.5 to be considered a health hazard.

Deaths in Africa attributed to outdoor pollution, at more than
210,000 per year in 2012 (WHO, 2016a, forthcoming), are less than
half of those attributable to household air pollution. As a result
of limited economic activity, concentrations of outdoor pollution is
low in most areas relative to other world regions, but the emissions
intensity of new economic activity is high. Today the major sources
of outdoor air pollution include old and unregulated vehicles, smoke
from indoor and outdoor cooking with biomass, the unregulated
burning of wood and waste (including the burning of toxic materials,
such as electronics), dust from dirt roads, and coal-fired power
generation, particularly in South Africa. The use of back-up diesel
generators (including an unknown but large number of small
generators in and around residences/apartments) to supplement
inadequate grid- based electricity supply is also a cause of noxious
emissions (IEA, 2014)

Measuring overall outdoor pollution is a major challenge: air
quality monitoring does not exist in most African countries. For
those cities in Africa that are monitored, the annual mean PM 10 and
PM 2.5 emissions exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) Air
Quality Guidelines levels in almost all cases (WHO, 2016b). A
satellite study suggests that between 2010 and 2012, 32% of West
Africans and 28% of the North African and Middle Eastern populations
are exposed to levels of PM 2.5 exceeding the WHO interim target-1
of 35 µg/m 3 , compared with none of the population of high-income
countries (Donkelaaer van, et al., 2015).

Nitrogen oxides (NO X) emissions in Africa were around 6.4 Mt in
2015, around half from vehicle tailpipe emissions and a quarter from
industry. Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions were 5.8 Mt in 2015, 42%
from the industry and transformation sectors and 45% from power
generation, largely as a result of coal combustion in South Africa.
Some efforts have been made across the continent to reduce PM 2.5
emissions mainly through incentivising the use of modern cooking
fuels, such as LPG and natural gas, though pollutant emissions have
risen, as has the number of people without access to clean cooking.

However, South Africa, through the National Environmental Management
Air Quality Act of 2004, is one of the only African countries
comprehensively regulating air quality and setting emissions
standards, imposing limits on new and existing power plants and
industrial installations. Effectively securing compliance remains an
issue in South Africa (as in many parts of the world).

Transport is a major contributor to outdoor air pollution in Africa.
An old and growing vehicle fleet, poor fuel quality and rapid
unplanned urban growth all contribute to increasingly choked cities.
Proper urban planning as well as improving public transport systems
could reduce the number of vehicles on the road. Improving fuel
quality, particularly removing sulfur, is a necessary step towards
the use of improved vehicle technologies that reduce tailpipe
pollution. Leaded gasoline was largely phased out in the 2000s, but
fuel quality remains variable. Despite some regulation, the sulfur
content of diesel remains very high in many countries: in Egypt,
diesel sulfur content is up to 7 000 ppm, over 700 times the level
in Europe.

Only a small number of African refineries have the capacity to
produce low-sulfur fuels and, even though the value of the health
benefits derived from upgrading refineries may far outweigh the
costs, sufficient incentive for investment is lacking. Low quality
fuels not only contribute to tailpipe emissions, but prevent the
adoption of higher vehicle exhaust emissions standards. Such
standards are implemented to a very limited extent: only Nigeria and
South Africa have emissions standards reaching the level of Euro 2
(introduced in Europe in 1996) or beyond. Many countries ban or
place tariffs on the import of older vehicles to discourage the
dumping of outdated and inefficient vehicles, but their low price
remains an attraction. The age and lack of maintenance of vehicles,
weak enforcement of laws in place and variable fuel quality often
means that the gap between test-standards (where they exist) and
real-world operation can be particularly large.

*****************************************************

AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.

AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. Please
write to this address to subscribe or unsubscribe to the bulletin,
or to suggest material for inclusion. For more information about
reposted material, please contact directly the original source
mentioned. For a full archive and other resources, see
http://www.africafocus.org

AfricaFocus Bulletin
June 22, 2016 (160622 )
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

“A new report by Tax Justice Network-Africa and ActionAid says that
East African countries (Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda) are
losing approximately $2 billion a year of revenue each year by
granting tax incentives to multinational companies. … According to
Yaekob Metena, ActionAid Tanzania’s country director, ‘Though there
have been improvements in recent years in addressing the issue,
governments in East Africa continue to give away domestic resources
in tax incentives, funds that could pay for the regions’ education
and health needs and meeting the development objectives.'”

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This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains a press release on this new
report from two of the organizations actively involved in the
Panafrican civil society campaign to stop illicit financial flow
from the African continent, which has been endorsed by the African
Union and is gaining worldwide momentum from a series of reports
from the Panama Papers and other investigative journalism.

The first report, on tax incentives, concentrates on the legal but
illicit policies that enable bleeding of resources from Africa to
multinational corporations through tax breaks. The second, from the
UN Environment Programme and Interpol, highlights the rapid increase
is losses due to black-market environmental crimes such as ivory
smuggling, illegal logging, and toxic waste disposal. Such crimes
are now the 4th largest illicit enterprise sector worldwide,
following drug smuggling, counterfeiting, and human trafficking,

For brief talking points and previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on
illicit financial flows and the Stop the Bleeding Africa campaign,
visit http://www.africafocus.org/intro-iff.php

For a database of articles and reports on illicit financial flows,
provided by the Stop the Bleeding Campaign but including data from
many sources, visit http://iffoadatabase.trustafrica.org/

For another hard-to-excerpt but revealing expose released today, see
Finance Uncovered’s investigative report on the shady financial
dealings holding up the renovation of the Rift Valley Railway (RVR).
The report is entitled “Trouble on the Lunatic Express,” and results
from a collaborative investigation by Kenyan, Belgian, and British
journalists. See http://www.financeuncovered.org/ – direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/zz5v77d

“We have discovered that the fabled RVR modernisation programme has
not resulted in the purchase of new trains as claimed by the owners
of the railway, Qalaa Holdings.

We have trawled accounts which show that Qalaa has created an
offshore structure of shell companies which has extracted millions
in advisory fees from RVR, despite the railway suffering losses in
recent years.”

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

East Africa losing up to 2 billion dollars to unproductive tax
incentives

Governments have taken few positive steps to curb loss of revenue

http://www.taxjusticeafrica.net / direct URL:
http://tinyurl.com/gmrmhde

http://www.actionaid.org / direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/hthr9dj

Dodoma, 18 June 2016 – A new report by Tax Justice Network-Africa
and ActionAid says that East African countries (Tanzania, Kenya,
Uganda and Rwanda) are losing approximately $2 billion a year of
revenue each year by granting tax incentives to multinational
companies. The report follows the EAC report series produced by the
two organizations in April 2012, examining the impact of tax
incentives on the region and giving recommendations to the EAC on
how to end a race to the bottom. This follow up report assesses what
has changed since 2012.

The report, entitled ‘Still Racing towards the Bottom? Corporate tax
incentives in East Africa’, states that while statements indicating
commitments to revise tax incentive policies have been made by
policymakers of the region, many questions abound on how eliminating
tax incentives will be realized. It is unclear how these tax
incentives will be revised, costed and phased out in practice and
what resources and expertise are at the disposal of the governments
to carry out this work.

According to Yaekob Metena, ActionAid Tanzania’s country director,
“Though there have been improvements in recent years in addressing
the issue, governments in East Africa continue to give away domestic
resources in tax incentives, funds that could pay for the regions’
education and health needs and meeting the development objectives.”

East African governments have taken some positive steps to reduce
tax incentives, especially those related to VAT, which are
increasing tax collection and providing vital extra revenue that
could be spent on providing critical services. However, they are
still failing to eliminate all unnecessary tax incentives. Countries
are still providing generous tax breaks in the form of tax holidays,
capital-gains tax allowances and royalty exemptions and these East
African countries continue to lose colossal amounts of revenue
through unnecessary tax exemptions and incentives given to
corporations.

“There is need to shift the policy environment in the region on the
issue of incentives as; political and financial national and
institutional authorities have admitted that tax incentives are in
fact harmful to domestic revenue mobilization and need to be
revised, costed and in most cases eliminated. In fact, as our report
shows that giving tax incentives is still fueling competition at
1the EAC level, and derailing any meaningful progress towards
regional harmonization of tax policies. Regional competition for
investors through providing tax incentives is still alive and is
undermining integration,” said Metena.

The report follows the EAC report series produced by the two
organizations in April 2012, examining the impact of tax incentives
on the region and giving recommendations to the EAC on how to end a
race to the bottom. This follow up report assesses what has changed
since 2012. “Many leaders are promising to take greater measures
towards progress on this in the region but there is a need for
tangible actions to be taken towards that end,” said Tax Justice
Network-Africa’s Deputy Executive Director, Jason Braganza.

Evidence gathered suggests that collectively, the four East African
countries (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda) could still be losing
around $1.5 billion and possibly up to $2 billion a year. The report
calls for East African governments to review the tax incentives they
are granting with a view to abolishing all unproductive incentives.
Any incentives that are determined to be effective should be
targeted at achieving specific social and economic objectives that
benefit East African citizens.

“The East Africa Community (EAC) must accelerate the harmonization
of its tax legislation with the EAC Agenda by ratifying the East
African Code of Conduct on Harmful Tax Competition and implementing
at national levels, the recommendations of the African Union High
Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows that was adopted at the AU
Summit in January 2015,” added Braganza.

ENDS

Paulina Teveli
Communications Coordinator – ActionAid Tanzania
Tel: +255 (0) 22 2700596 | Mob: +255 755 706322
Email: Paulina.Teveli@actionaid.org.

Michelle Mbuthia
Assistant Communications Officer – Tax Justice Network-Africa
Tel: +254 724 994796
Email: mmbuthia@taxjusticeafrica.net

Editors’ Notes:

Four countries alone – Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda – could
still be losing around $1.5 billion and possibly up to $2 billion a
year through the granting of corporate tax incentives to foreign
companies. Uganda loses around US$370 million, Kenya around US$1.1
billion, and Rwanda up to US$176 million. This amounts to, total
revenue losses that would amount to up to $2 billion a year.

The 2 billion a year figure (less than the 2.8 billion a year figure
from our 2012 report) reflects a welcomed commitment by the EAC
government’s. Governments have taken some positive steps to reduce
tax incentives, especially those related to VAT, which are
increasing tax collections and providing vital extra revenues that
could be spent on providing critical services. However, the figure
is exceedingly estimated and may well be short of reality as
accurate reliable data in most cases does not exist for all
incentives given to foreign firms.

While welcome statements indicating commitments to revise tax
incentives have been uttered by politicians of the region, many
questions arise how eliminating tax incentives will be realised. It
is unclear how these tax incentives will be revised, costed and
phased out in practice and what resources and expertise are at the
disposal of governments to carry out this work.

For Burundi, determining the revenue losses due to tax incentives
was particularly challenging in this case owing to an almost
complete lack of data. However, Burundi’s President Pierre
Nkurunziza, recently indicated that at least 81 billion Burundian
Francs ($52 million) has been lost to companies or officials who
have been given tax exemptions to import goods to build
infrastructure and instead sold on the materials.

In Tanzania, revenue losses from tax incentives given in 2014/15
were likely to be around US$790 million; although this figure
predates the new VAT law which is claimed will result in extra
revenues of US$500 million.

Kenya, the amount of revenue lost through tax incentives is likely
to be near the KShs100 billion (US$1.1 billion) a year level.

In Uganda, it remains unclear how much Uganda is losing to tax
incentives since government figures do not appear to provide full
figures, but the amount is likely be around US$370 million.

In Rwanda, estimates suggest that Rwanda is losing between Rwf 87
billion (US$115 million) and Rwf123 billion (US$176 million) a year.

ActionAid is a global movement of people working together to achieve
greater human rights for all and defeat poverty. We believe people
in poverty have the power within them to create change for
themselves, their families and communities. ActionAid is a catalyst
for that change.

Tax Justice Network-Africa (TJN-A) is a Pan-African initiative
established in 2007 and a member of the Global Alliance for Tax
Justice. It is a network of 29 members in 16 African countries.
Through its Nairobi Secretariat, TJN-A collaborates closely with
these member organisations in tax justice activities at the
national, regional and global level. TJN-A seeks to promote socially
just and progressive taxation systems in Africa, advocating for pro-
poor tax policies and the strengthening of tax systems to promote
domestic resource mobilisation. TJN-A aims to challenge harmful tax
policies and practices that favour the wealthy and aggravate and
perpetuate inequality.

*******************************************************

Environmental crime now the world’s fourth largest illicit
enterprise, says new report

June 13, 2016

http://www.africaeconews.co.ke/ – Direct URL –
http://tinyurl.com/jnjo59x

Environmental crime is now the world’s fourth largest illicit
enterprise after drug smuggling, counterfeiting and human
trafficking.

According to a joint report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
and Interpol (see full report at
http://unep.org/documents/itw/environmental_crimes.pdf), it is
estimated that the value of the black market industry behind crimes
such as ivory smuggling, illegal logging and toxic waste dumping has
jumped by 26 per cent from 2014 to between US$91 billion and US$258
billion annually depriving countries of future revenues and
development opportunities.

“Environmental crime has impacts beyond those posed by regular
criminality. It increases the fragility of an already brittle
planet,” observed Mr Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and
Unep Executive Director.

Interpol Secretary General Jürgen Stock says an enhanced law
enforcement can help address this worrying trend.

“There are significant examples worldwide of cross-sectoral efforts
working to crack down on environmental crime and successfully
restore wildlife, forests and ecosystems. Such collaboration,
sharing and joining of efforts within and across borders, whether
formal or informal, is our strongest weapon in fighting
environmental crime,” says Mr Stock.

Environmental crimes cover not only the illegal trade in wildlife,
but also forestry and fishery crimes. It includes illegal dumping of
waste including chemicals and use of ozone-depleting substances.

Destruction of natural flora and fauna, pollution, landscape
degradation and radiation hazards, with negative impacts on arable
land, crops and trees adds to the list.

The debate on environmental crimes also includes exploitation of
natural resources such as minerals, oil, timber and marine
resources.

In recent years, the joint report says, the debate has reached the
global stage due to its serious and deleterious impact on the
environment and ecosystems, as well as on peace, security and
development.

Environmental Crimes makes simpler for Illicit Financial Outflows

Illegal exploitation of natural resources, including ITW, has
negative consequence on potential revenues from tourism, timber,
mining, gold, diamonds, fisheries and even oil and charcoal.

These natural resources could have produced revenue for development
needs in health care, infrastructure, schools and sustainable
business development.

Indeed, the illegal trade especially in natural resources like fish,
timber and minerals undermine legal and sustainable businesses
through unfair competition and non-payment of legitimate taxes for
social benefits.

Currently, the scale of different forms of environmental crime is
likely in the range of USD 91–259 billion or twice the size of
global official development assistance (ODA).

This total amount of USD 91–259 billion is a loss to society because
the commercial activity takes place as an illegitimate enterprise.
It undermines governance, legal tax-influenced price levels, and
particularly legitimate business. An unknown proportion will
nonetheless be re-introduced into the legitimate economy through
money laundering.

A research by Development Initiatives (DI) on foreign aid and
stimulating domestic revenue mobilisation in Kenya and Uganda
revealed that tax revenue makes up the largest proportion of total
revenue, which is over 85 per cent for Kenya in the last three years
(and over 80 per cent in Uganda). It also found that ODA to domestic
revenue mobilisation in Kenya and Uganda amounted to close to US$
21.5 million in 2014 (with more funding to Uganda than Kenya).

DI suggests in order for the country’s efforts to mobilise domestic
revenue to bear more fruit, there is need to develop approaches that
increase tax revenue without necessarily increasing the tax burden.
However, broadening the tax base to mobilise more domestic revenue
might be undermined if attention is not given to leakages including
illicit financial flows.

Meanwhile, the Panama Papers showed that illicit financial flows are
not only an Africa problem, and that there is a need for global
collaboration to track them.

“Countries such as Kenya and Uganda should target job-creating
economic growth, and shift away from growth based solely on
extractive industries – oil and gas – and services that require the
employment of fewer people,” says the joint report. About 10 per
cent of the total amount is estimated loss of revenue to
governments. The number is based on two assumptions: That the
criminal activity generates an average profit of 30 per cent, and
that government tax revenues could be 30 per cent of the profits, if
the environmental crime activities had been legal and legitimate.

For an approximate comparison the average world total tax rate
percentage of commercial profits was 40.8 in 2015 according to the
World Bank. For the USD 91–259 billion range, with a profit of USD
27–78 billion, the tax income, which is loss for government revenue,
would be 8–23 billion, or 8.8 per cent of the total amount, giving
an average loss of government revenue of USD 9–26 billion.

The report points out an escalating species extinction due to wanton
wildlife poaching and trafficking. Illegal logging and trade results
in climate change emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation.

The reports adds that illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing
has resulted into fish stocks depletion, loss of revenues for local
fishmongers and states. Most targeted fish species are Tuna,
Toothfish and Sharks.

Criminals exploit the lack of international consensus and the
divergence of approaches taken by countries. What may constitute a
crime in one country, is not in another. This effectively enables
criminals to go “forum shopping” and use one country to conduct
poaching, and another to prepare merchandise, and export via a third
transit country.

According to UNODC, corruption is the most important enabling factor
behind illegal wildlife and timber trade. Identifying the optimal
legal framework for preventing, combating and prosecuting
environmental crimes requires careful consideration.

There are proposals, according to the UN report on environmental
crime; firstly, designating any violation of wildlife or
environmental laws and regulations to be designated as “serious
crimes”. Another proposal is to designate illicit trafficking in
protected species of wild fauna and flora involving organised
criminal groups” as serious crimes.

In as much as the UN Convention on Transnational Organised Crime
(UNTOC) defines organised criminal groups, the new report recommends
a broader applicability of the convention on new and emerging forms
of crime.

In 2014, the Interpol General Assembly passed a Resolution on
Interpol’s response to emerging threats in Environmental Security
(Resolution AG-2014-RES-03). In that resolution, instead of defining
environmental crime, Interpol instead focused on “environmental
security” by recognising the impact that environmental crime and
violations can have on a nation’s political stability, environmental
quality, its natural resources, biodiversity, economy and human
life.

Interpol also recognises that criminal networks engaged in financial
crime, fraud, corruption, illicit trade and human trafficking are
also engaged in or facilitating environmental crime.

Experts say the approach by both Interpol and the Commission on
Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice (CCPCJ) in regarding
environmental crimes more as a collective term, makes the
criminalities fall under already established laws on serious crimes,
including, but not limited to, serious financial and corporate
crimes, forgery, fraud including tax fraud, terrorist finance. Such
an approach provides prosecutors with far more powerful tools for
prosecution and prevention and importantly – proportionality between
offense, intent and punishment.

UN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2195 (2014), recognised that;
natural resources are increasingly driving conflicts.

Three conventions control the international trade and movement of
hazardous waste and dangerous chemical substances by setting
procedures and standards for import and export. Both the environment
and human health are exposed to hazardous waste and chemicals
through the cycle these products go through from production,
transport, use to disposal.

There are three interlinked conventions: the Basel Convention on the
Control of Trans-boundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their
Disposal, which primarily covers wastes trade; the Rotterdam
Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain
Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade and The
Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants which
primarily covers chemicals, including restrictions on production.

The consensus based on Montreal Protocol of 1987, which controls
ozone depleting gasses (ODS), has been ratified by 197 parties,
making it universal. Projects worth USD 3.2 billion have been
approved by its executive committee to phase out over 450,000 tonnes
of substances with ozone depletion potential including the
implementation of Project Sky Hole Patching by the Regional
Intelligence Liaison Office of the World Customs Organisation in the
2000s. Unep, Unido, UNDP and the World Bank are the implementing
agencies of the protocol.

Unep Governing Council’s Decision 27/9 is the first internationally-
negotiated document to establish the term “environmental rule of
law”.

The decision emphasised the role of organised criminal groups in
trafficking hazardous waste, wildlife and illegal timber. The
Council recognised that environmental crime undermines sustainable
development, the successful implementation of environmental goals
and objectives, the rule of law, and effective governance.

The council also noted that these issues have been recognised in UN
General Assembly resolution A/RES/67/1 (2012) and A/RES/67/97 (2013)
which urged member states to address transnational organised crime’s
impact on the environment.

United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) reaffirms the need to
making illicit trafficking in protected species and forest products
into a serious crime as defined by UNTOC.

World Environmental Law Congress in Rio in April 2016, where the
Chief Justices, Heads of Jurisdictions, Attorneys Generals, Auditors
General, Chief Prosecutors and other high-ranking representatives
were gathered, agreed on a list of seven core principles to
strengthen the environmental rule of law.

The congress passed recommendations not limited to linking
environmental crimes to other crimes such as money laundering, and
strengthening courts’ capacity as guarantors of the environmental
rule of law.

*****************************************************

AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
Bulletin is edited by William Minter.

AfricaFocus Bulletin can be reached at africafocus@igc.org. Please
write to this address to subscribe or unsubscribe to the bulletin,
or to suggest material for inclusion. For more information about
reposted material, please contact directly the original source
mentioned. For a full archive and other resources, see
http://www.africafocus.org

AfricaFocus Bulletin
June 13, 2016 (160613)
(Reposted from sources cited below)

Editor’s Note

From solar TVs in rural Kenya to modular concrete for windmills in
Iowa, the pace of technological advance continues to accelerate,
making renewable fuels more and more competitive with fossil fuels.
Technology alone will not be sufficient, of course. But these
trends, combined with worldwide climate activism and increasing
awareness among the public and government policy-makers, are leading
even establishment analysts to conclude that, in the words of the
Financial Times, “fossil fuel producers face a future of slow and
steady decline.”

For a version of this Bulletin in html format, more suitable for
printing, go to http://www.africafocus.org/docs16/clim1606.php, and
click on “format for print or mobile.”

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The extent of damage already being felt and determined by current
emissions levels means that “slow and steady” decline is by no means
enough. Resistance by policy-makers and businesses to the transition
is still formidable. Although South African activists, for example,
headline their campaign “Don’t Be a Fossil Fool,” the South African
government (and many others) continue to pursue such destructive and
outdated policies. Fracking is still being advanced in the United
States, the UK, and Canada as a legitimate “transition.” But it is
telling that such enterprises are no longer good bets for the
rational business or investor.

This AfricaFocus Bulletin contains several articles relevant to
these developments, including news reports from Kenya, Iowa, and
South Africa, plus an analytical review from Jeremy Leggett, who
provides a monthly update in his blog on “The Great Transition.”

Also of interest: a recent report by the International Energy Agency
concludes that price trends are not yet enough for renewable energy
to advance: investors also need policy support from governments to
insure that projects can be funded with adequate capital. See Green
Tech Media for June 7: http://tinyurl.com/z2dzkza

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on Climate and related issues,
see http://www.africafocus.org/intro-env.php

++++++++++++++++++++++end editor’s note+++++++++++++++++

This solar-powered TV brings global news to rural Africa

By Sophie Morlin-Yron

CNN, June 3, 2016

http://tinyurl.com/hd7njc8

CNN)In rural Kenya, people walk for miles in the blistering sun
after work just to watch television in the nearest town.

At 7pm, in the village restaurants, the music turns off, and the
news turns on.

In this nation of 45 million people — where many live without
electricity — only 30% of Kenyans have their own television.

Now a start-up has developed a 16-inch TV which runs on the sun’s
rays, bringing communication to the masses.

“There are some 5 million homes in Kenya that don’t have
electricity,” says Jesse Moore, founder of M-KOPA Solar.
“And the product most people living off-the-grid want to get is a
television.”

Staying current

The M-KOPA Solar TV connects to Kenya’s digital television network
of about 30 free channels, screening soap operas, premier league
football games and marathons.

But culturally Kenyans are very engaged in politics and business,
and it is news broadcasts that attracts the most viewers, Moore
says.

“If you travel around Kenya, you see people veraciously reading the
newspapers … People want to consume information about their
society and about their government.”
M-KOPA has sold around 5,000 sets since the launch in February, and
Moore says they are struggling to keep up with the growing demand.

“It’s feeling of, ‘Hey, I can live in a rural area, but I’m not cut
off’.”

How it works

The new kit adds a 16″ TV to the original package.

The Solar TV is an extension of a more basic solar panel kit to
power lights, radios and mobile phones, which the company has sold
to 340,000 households in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
Now it can also power a TV.

Users simply fix the solar panel to a sunny area outside their home
and connect it to their television via a power cord.

Power on loan

M stands for “mobile” and KOPA is Swahili for “to borrow” — the
business is tailored to people in less affluent areas who are unable
to buy solar panels, or a TV, up front.

“Most of our customers live at, or below, $2 per day per capita,”
says Moore.

Using a mobile payment system provided by partner company,
Safaricom, customers pay between 50 cents and $1.25 a day over 1 to
2 years, depending on their payment plan.

The TV and solar panel cost $500 in total — once that is paid, the
kit is no longer on loan, and all power is free for as long as the
sun shines.

Mobile payment paved the way

Moore, a former aid worker from Canada, says mobile payment systems
like M-PESA are crucial to business in Africa.

“It allows everybody in this country to move money seamlessly
through their mobile phones in a way that’s almost to the envy of
the UK or Canada.”

Moore saw an opportunity to bring social change to remote
communities with affordable solar power kits — and started M-KOPA
Solar in 2011 together with Nick Hughes, Chief Product Officer, and
Chad Larson, Chief Credit Officer.

Today, the company has 2,000 employees and offices in five
countries.

*********************************************

Don’t be a fossil fool: how South Africa’s coal addiction is costing
us

Daily Vox, May 11, 2016

http://tinyurl.com/zg24uef

For videos and photos from demonstrations, visit
http://southafrica.breakfree2016.org.

For the May BreakFree demonstrations world-wide, including
disruptions of fossil-fuel facilities in Australia, Germany, Brazil,
UK, Turkey, and USA, see http://breakfree16.org

Ahead of their three-day long campaign against fossil fuels and its
impact on people’s livelihood, climate change organisation, 350.org
held a press briefing to detail the structure of the campaign, Break
Free from Fossil Fuels. 350.org, together with other organisations
presented a mouthful at the briefing and THE DAILY VOX sums up the
nitty-gritty.

Mzansi’s [South Africa’s] addiction to coal has resulted in the
doubling of CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in the past 56 years. We
are ranked the 12th largest CO2 emitter worldwide and the
environmental impacts of the coal sector are huge. 350.org is
calling on South African government to stop clinging to volatile
fossil fuels and consider a cleaner and fairer renewable energy.

From May 12 – 14, a series of events is planned by 350.org to keep
coal under the ground and lead the fight against coal mining and the
sector’s corruption. The events, under the umbrella Break Free from
Fossil Fuels will include protests and a visit to South Africa’s
coal mining hub, Emalahleni in Mpumalanga to raise awareness. The
campaign will speak out against fossil fuels, climate change, and
their impact of drought and hunger.

Yes fossil fuels, climate change, drought and food crisis are
connected. Here’s how:

Climate crisis and fossil fuels

Coal-fired power plants are the biggest source of man-made CO2
emissions, making coal energy the greatest threat facing our
climate. People are already living the impacts of the climate
crisis, with 2014 and 2015 recorded as the hottest years. South
Africa’s El Niño-induced drought is exposing weaknesses in the
state’s response. 2015 was the driest year on record for SA. Harsher
and longer droughts, heat waves and extreme rainfall can’t be
separated from the causal impact of climate change.

Climate change, drought and hunger

South Africa’s drought is affecting millions of people and
increasing starvation. Climate change is further exposing the
problems with a corporate-controlled food system. All measures of
food prices are showing a dramatic increase in food inflation, with
year on year increase of staples particularly. The biggest increases
have been in mealie meal, samp, cooking oil and potatoes. Food
profiteering denies us the right to food under the constitution.

The hunger crisis and high food prices

Food price inflation has increased by 13.4 % since November 2015. In
January 2016, food prices had increased by 6.9%. Bread companies are
taking advantage of the drought and artificially increasing their
prices. A brown loaf now costs 5.73% more than it did last year.

While the state is responding to commercial farmers, it is not doing
enough for smaller scale farmers and poor communities. Moreover,
food inflation has eroded the value of social grants. According to
PACSA (Pietermaritzburg Agency for Community Social Action, the
total of old age pension (R1, 510 in April/October 2016) cannot
actually cover the cost of a food basket (R1,879.24 in February
2016). Moreover, a minimum food basket for a household of four costs
R2, 420.77 in February 2016. In South Africa, 27 million people earn
less than R3, 000 per month. With food price increases, particularly
of staples, hunger is going to worsen. Already, one in five children
suffers from malnutrition and learning disabilities.

**********************************************

The tallest wind power tower in the US, assembled in one hypnotizing
video

Vox, June 1, 2016

Watch the video at
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/1/11820920/concrete-wind-turbine

Wind power engineering is governed by a simple fact: The higher you
go, the stronger and steadier the wind gets and the more power you
can generate. So the evolution of wind power over the years has
largely been a process of building bigger and bigger blades and
perching them atop higher and higher towers.
The turbine being assembled in this video, by MidAmerican Energy,
will be the tallest land-based wind turbine ever built in the US,
with a hub height (ground to center of blades) of 115.5 meters (379
feet) and a capacity of 2,415 kW. It’s not quite up to the level of
the best turbines in Europe, but it’s mainly meant as an experiment.
Wind towers in Europe now routinely reach 120 to 140 meters (over
500 feet).

US wind towers are catching up with Europe’s

The US has not quite caught up. Since 2011, average hub height in
the US has stalled out at about 80 meters (or 262 feet):

What explains this? Part of it is the fact that US wind resources
are generally stronger, especially in the upper Midwest, which
somewhat reduces the incentive to build higher. Some of it is cost
and regulations. But a surprisingly big piece is transport.

The taller a wind tower gets, the bigger the diameter of the base.
But at this point, those giant cross sections of steel tower are
getting so big that they can’t be transported via interstate. …

Tower sections bigger than the standard (80-meter) kind have to be
transported via special trucks, and only on certain highways. It’s a
huge bottleneck.

(Another reason EU turbines are taller is that more of them are in
the ocean, where transport can be done by boat.)

Concrete turbine towers can get around transport restrictions

So engineers and designers have begun looking to concrete. The
advantage of concrete towers, besides the fact that concrete is an
extremely well-understood material with a well-developed industry
behind it, is that they are modular. They come in smaller pieces,
which can be transported via regular trucking and safely assembled
on site.

(Theoretically, steel could be cut in smaller pieces too, but
assembling steel pieces, i.e., welding, on site is much more
difficult and technical than snapping concrete Legos together.)

It’s still a fairly new idea — only a few concrete wind towers are
currently in operation — but as the drive to push turbines ever
higher continues, it could take off.

The MidAmerican Energy turbine in Iowa is testing the concrete
model. If it succeeds, there is little limit to how tall towers
could get, though at a certain point land use considerations come
into play. Concrete is extremely carbon-intensive at present, but
there’s lots of work underway to make it lighter, stronger, and
greener. (There’s also work being done to develop hybrid
concrete/steel towers.)

It would be somewhat ironic if concrete, one of the oldest and most
boring elements of industry, were the future of wind.

**********************************************

“State of the Transition, May 2016: Talk of Twilight

http://www.jeremyleggett.net/2016/06/

Jeremy Leggett, June 5, 2016

World records tumbled in renewable energy this month. Utilities,
facing short-term existential threat in the face of clean-energy
growth, continued to wrestle with the imperative of escaping the
energy incumbency. Oil and gas companies, facing longer term threat
to business-model viability, read dire assessments of their
prospects in places they could not have imagined possible until
recently. Investors continued to awaken to climate risk, and a
critical mass of governments stayed broadly on course for the
current and future action that the Paris Agreement requires of them.
None of this, however, happened as fast as the recent run of world-
record monthly average temperatures merits. Unprecedented wildfires
and die offs of coral reefs were harsh reminders this month of the
race against time that civilisation is running.

The latest solar auction, in Dubai, saw a power plant proposal come
in below 3 cents a kilowatt hour for the first time: cheaper than
any other form of power today. It remains to be seen if such a plant
can be built at a profit, but this world-first shows that the solar
industry has a cost-down roadmap with yet more mileage in it. The
cost-down megatrends of solar and wind are driving solid growth in
grid penetration by renewables. Germany generated almost all its
power from renewables one day in May. Portugal managed four straight
days of 100% renewable power. UK energy from coal hit zero for first
time in over 100 years …several times in a week.

Growth in jobs reflects the energy transition unfolding. We learned
in May that more than 8 million people now work in renewables. Solar
photovoltaics is the biggest employer with 2.8 million, while 1.1
million work in wind. In the USA the 769,000-plus people employed in
renewables  – on an upward trend of 20% in 2015 – dwarf the 187,000
in oil and gas and the 68,000 in coal mining, sectors that are both
on strong downward trends.

Storage continues to race into the frame. Figures for 2015 showed
fully half the small solar PV plants installed in Germany were built
with storage. This story involves far more than the headlines
generated in April by Tesla. For example, Nissan announced a
residential battery product for Europe, scheduled for a September
launch.

Eon and RWE, the two giant German utilities who have admitted their
old business model is dead, continue to pursue radical
restructurings. Analysts are questioning whether they will have
strong enough balance sheets to execute their u-turns. In the US, a
study for the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute
showed that the top 25 investor-owned electric utilities spent over
$400 million lobbying against clean energy in the past four years.
Had they deployed that capital embracing the future rather than
defending the past, they could have accelerated the revolution
considerably. For example, had they used the cash underwriting loans
to ratepayers, they could have doubled the nation’s solar capacity.

The utilities’ wasteful defence of a failing status quo is as
nothing compared to that of the oil and gas industry’s. But the oil
and gas giants are coming under increasing pressure, and nowhere
more so than on the risk that they are heading for stranded assets.
The latest report from Carbon Tracker calculated that the oil majors
would be worth more if they adapted their business models to reflect
a world in which governments actually succeed in their treaty
commitments to keep global warming below 2°C.

ExxonMobil and Chevron faced torrid times at their AGMs in May
staving off shareholder resolutions around stranded-asset risk. They
won majorities, but for how much longer can they? A BBC headline
suggested Exxon Mobil faces a “change or die” moment on climate. The
Royal Institution for International Affairs published an analysis
suggesting that the oil companies have ten years in which to change
strategy, or face a “short, brutish end”. “Not-so-Big Oil”, read the
headline of an Economist article focussing on the evaporation of
profits. The problems are not just around climate and the debt
mountain they are building. Oil discoveries slumped to a 60-year low
in 2015. The Financial Times summed up in an editorial at the end of
May under the headline: “The long twilight of the big oil
companies.” “Fossil fuel producers face a future of slow and steady
decline”, the leader writer argued.

Investors are reacting, albeit slowly. A report by the Asset Owners
Disclosure Project showed that 246 of the world’s 500 biggest
investors, worth $14 trillion, are still ignoring climate risk
completely. The AODP rates investor behaviour in the manner of
ratings agencies, in this case assessing engagement on climate risk,
risk management, and low-carbon investment. They distinguish classes
from Leaders (A to AAA grade) through to Bystanders (D grade) and
Laggards (ungradeable). The percentage of Leaders is growing slowly,
but does not come close to matching the urgency implicit in the work
of regulators concerned about stranded assets. That said, the very
fact that ratings are now being applied should help unlock the
floodgates. So should the work of the G20’s Taskforce on Climate-
related Financial Disclosure when it reports later this year. My
prediction: expect a stampede at some point soon. The capital
markets are well known for herd behaviour.

Total is one oil and gas company that is making an effort, at least
to hedge bets. Total aims to have a fifth of its assets in low-
carbon by 2036. Its latest move is a billion euro acquisition of a
battery company, Saft Group. During May, Total and the solar company
it majority owns, SunPower, announced a project to power Santiago’s
metro with a 100 megawatt solar plant. Serving 2.2 million
passengers every day, this would be the first public transportation
system in the world to run mostly on solar energy. On a personal
note, I have often been assured by defenders of the energy
incumbency in London that “renewables can never run the tube
(metro).”

ExxonMobil, meanwhile, dug further into their defence of the status
quo. Their CEO told his AGM that ending oil production was “not
acceptable for humanity”. Calpers, holding $1bn of ExxonMobil
shares, was among the many who took a different view: “This is their
Kodak moment”, said Anne Simpson, representing the giant Californian
pension fund. “If they want to still be in business in 30 years,
they have to understand the changes that are taking place.”

In the UK, fracking of shale for gas won a council go-ahead for
first time since 2011. Here too scorn descended on the industry, not
least because – unmentioned by many UK press reports – bankruptcies
among US shale frackers have now rising to more than 70 in the face
of a debt mountain that is raising fears in some quarters of a new
sub-prime crisis. The FT’s Lex Column won first prize for imagery:
“The idea of the undead fascinates people”, Lex’s analyst wrote.
“The cult following still believes that fracking in the UK could be
profitable. Investors should allow market forces to finally kill it
off.”

A session of climate talks in Bonn was covered by less than 100
journalists, compared to the 3,500 who attended the Paris Climate
Summit. Almost unnoticed, governments kept their climate show on the
road, teeing up processes for implementing the Paris Agreement that
make success at this year’s climate summit, in Marrakesh in
December, more likely.  At this point it looks possible that the
treaty will actually come into force earlier than negotiators agreed
in Paris.

There can be little doubt that all players, governmental and non-
governmental, will have to move faster than they expected in Paris.
The global average temperature for April broke yet another world
record. Terrifyingly, twelve months in a row have now done so.
Unprecedented impacts accompanied the unprecedented heat, most
notably a uniquely ferocious wildfire in Canada that required the
evacuation of Fort MacMurray, a city that owes its existence to the
tar sands. More than half the coral on the northern Great Barrier
Reef appears to have been killed by bleaching in unsurvivably hot
water.

For those still resistant to the idea that the world is warming
dangerously because of greenhouse gas emissions, despite such
evidence, there should be another reason to worry now. The largest
coral reef in the continental US, off Florida, is dissolving into
the ocean in some areas. The acid doing the damage comes from carbon
dioxide from fossil fuel burning. Then there should be worries about
air pollution, from the same source. The World Health Organisation
announced it is up 8% in last 5 years, and is now the single biggest
killer in world.

*****************************************************

AfricaFocus Bulletin is an independent electronic publication
providing reposted commentary and analysis on African issues, with a
particular focus on U.S. and international policies. AfricaFocus
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